Perhaps now the equity market understands that it would be impossible for the Fed to normalize rates if the central bank was to take rates back down to zero in short order due to the Banking crisis or for any other reason. Wednesday's FOMC projections show that the Fed plans to keep rates elevated and … Continue reading Now Maybe The Market Gets It?
Fiscal Credit Crunch
More important than any "credit crunch" that may occur as a result of banks tightening credit (you can be sure the banks are tightening regardless of what the Fed may do regarding rates), is the self-imposed fiscal credit crunch that will occur as interest expense on the public debt begins to crowd out discretionary spending … Continue reading Fiscal Credit Crunch
I Don’t See The Fed Pausing Wednesday
I don't see the Fed taking a pause regarding further hiking of its Fed Funds rate. Heck, banks can borrow at 4.71% from the BTFP, which is a discount to the Discount Window. A 25 BPS hike is likely in the cards. As we wrote recently, the Fed must fight inflation. Commercial banks will help … Continue reading I Don’t See The Fed Pausing Wednesday
Another Fed Bail Out Is Coming
If J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon is leading talks to create a new rescue plan for First Republic Bank (as the WSJ reports), you can be sure the Fed will play a pivotal role. The fear is that absent a bank bail out, Banking weakness could have a negative cascading effect on credit markets and … Continue reading Another Fed Bail Out Is Coming
Private Equity & A Fed Pivot
All banks have got to be tightening access to credit despite the Fed's bail out and despite the SNB's bail out. What group does tightening credit hurt most? Private Equity firms. During the COVID trough we kept hearing how Private Equity firms would not feel the pain as they had access to approximately $1 Trillion … Continue reading Private Equity & A Fed Pivot
The Latest Bank Bail Out: UBS To Acquire CSFB.
UBS agreed to acquire CSFB. Sure, $17 billion in high yield debt was wiped out (perhaps we will see high yield downgrades as a result elsewhere across the landscape of financial issuers?) Despite the writedown of $17 billion in high yield debt, I hesitate to characterize this deal as a "bail in" because the Swiss … Continue reading The Latest Bank Bail Out: UBS To Acquire CSFB.
We’ve Got It All Wrong
Americans fear for their bank deposits. Your deposits are safe. However, you should fear the remedy. The Fed bail out from last Sunday could result in $1-2 trillion of additional public debt assuming that the Fed marks up the assets of and extends loans to all U.S. banks except J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Wells … Continue reading We’ve Got It All Wrong
NLP & Productivity Apps: Microsoft Copilot
Back in March 2019 we wrote about the future use of NLP-powered applications across various industries - in particular Financial Services (our 2019 TEK2day article HERE). Microsoft (MSFT) is bringing natural language capability to its Productivity suite - Microsoft 365. This natural language offering has a name: "Copilot". We include an example of Copilot deployed … Continue reading NLP & Productivity Apps: Microsoft Copilot
Gold Safer Than Software
Investors have historically moved to Gold in times of uncertainty. Gold has moved substantially higher since the market turmoil in the banking sector kicked off last week. Here's why investors should be interested in Gold: perpetual money printing by the Fed, ever larger fiscal deficits and a mounting debt load - the combination of which … Continue reading Gold Safer Than Software
Amazon Bank, Apple Bank, Google Bank…
Fed Chairman Powell should lob calls into Andy Jassy (AMZN CEO), Tim Cook (AAPL CEO), Sundar Pichai (GOOGL CEO), Satya Nadella (MSFT CEO) and Doug McMillon (WMT CEO) in an effort to persuade them to consider acquiring a bank. To hell with potential pushback from the FTC. AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT and WMT already dabble … Continue reading Amazon Bank, Apple Bank, Google Bank…
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