Month: September 2020

Time to Spin-Off AWS, Azure and GCP

Time to Spin-Off AWS, Azure and GCP

Given Snowflake's rich valuation, it may be time for Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft to spin-off GCP, AWS and Azure. Snowflake priced its IPO yesterday and the stock closed up 112% to $253.93 for a valuation of approximately $70 billion. Assuming calendar year 2020 revenue of $500 million implies a MV/Revenue multiple of 140x. The combination … Continue reading Time to Spin-Off AWS, Azure and GCP

Questionable M&A Strategy (Oracle) and Due Diligence (GM)

Questionable M&A Strategy (Oracle) and Due Diligence (GM)

Two head-scratching Technology deals. Oracle's TikTok deal appears to be smoke and mirrors while GM's due diligence on its Nikola deal appears to be surface-level at best. Both wreak of desperation. Oracle's TikTok deal is high on sizzle, low on substance. Assuming the Oracle/TikTok deal receives U.S. government approval and ultimately closes (we are not … Continue reading Questionable M&A Strategy (Oracle) and Due Diligence (GM)

The Tech Stock Speculation Era

The Tech Stock Speculation Era

When it comes to Technology stocks we are firmly in the Speculation Era. It is likely to stay that way for the near-term. October earnings calls may provide a bump in the road. Looming corporate tax increases will likely put an end to the bubble. The combination of Trump tax cuts and the recent fiscal … Continue reading The Tech Stock Speculation Era

Powell Is A Paper Fed Chair. That’s Good News for Stocks.

Powell Is A Paper Fed Chair. That’s Good News for Stocks.

Powell is a paper-loving, paper-printing Fed Chair. Powell has never hesitated to print his way out of a tough spot. We predict that should the equity markets roll over another 10-15 percentage points Powell and his band of merry Federal Reserve Board members will seek to support the equity markets with Equity ETF purchases. Tickers … Continue reading Powell Is A Paper Fed Chair. That’s Good News for Stocks.

Competing for Employees in the WFH Era

Competing for Employees in the WFH Era

Tickers mentioned: AAPL, AMZN, FB, GOOG, MSFT, VMW, TWTR Deep-pocketed companies such as Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft have a competitive advantage in the Talent War - especially during the Work-From-Home era. On that front, VMWare and Twitter just shot themselves in the foot. VMWare and Twitter said they will adjust compensation downward for … Continue reading Competing for Employees in the WFH Era

Most Banking CEOs Fail To Innovate. New Citi CEO Jane Fraser May Have Better Luck.

Most Banking CEOs Fail To Innovate. New Citi CEO Jane Fraser May Have Better Luck.

Innovation is the name of the game and I am unable to think of a major bank that has innovated or disrupted the market over the past 20-30 years. Goldman probably comes closest. Goldman's biggest "innovation" was attaching itself to Apple's coat tails. JPMorgan has leveraged AI and other advanced technologies internally. However, JPM has … Continue reading Most Banking CEOs Fail To Innovate. New Citi CEO Jane Fraser May Have Better Luck.

Equities Continue to Experience Fund Outflows as Technology Stocks Slide

Equities Continue to Experience Fund Outflows as Technology Stocks Slide

Equity funds continue to experience fund outflows as taxable bond funds enjoy fund inflows. (see table & chart below). A modicum of sanity has crept into the equity markets insofar as Technology names are concerned. High multiple growth names that were driven primarily by speculation and momentum have finally started to pull back over the … Continue reading Equities Continue to Experience Fund Outflows as Technology Stocks Slide

Credit Spreads Will Widen as Job Losses Mount and Supply-Side Costs Increase

Credit Spreads Will Widen as Job Losses Mount and Supply-Side Costs Increase

Credit spreads will widen in our view primarily driven by job losses and increases in the cost of goods and services. There is downward pressure on jobs as we usher in the fall season. Seasonal summer jobs essentially work their way to zero from Labor Day to Columbus Day. Government jobs around the U.S. Census … Continue reading Credit Spreads Will Widen as Job Losses Mount and Supply-Side Costs Increase

Carlos Brito Is On His Way Out as BUD CEO. Did BUD’s Board Try To Help Brito?

Carlos Brito Is On His Way Out as BUD CEO. Did BUD’s Board Try To Help Brito?

CEO's need to be comfortable with some level of diversification to keep their companies relevant over the long-term. Long-time Anheuser-Busch InBev (ticker: BUD) CEO Carlos Brito was not afraid of big acquisitions. However, his most notable large acquisitions (Anheuser-Busch and SABMiller) failed to add new beverage categories to the tired product portfolio while weighting it … Continue reading Carlos Brito Is On His Way Out as BUD CEO. Did BUD’s Board Try To Help Brito?