Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Month: October 2020
The ICE BofAML Bond Volatility Index (MOVE) began its march higher on October 1st and has not looked back. There has been an inverse relationship between MOVE and the Russell 2000 Index this year which suggests more equity market volatility is around the corner. https://soundcloud.com/ceorater
Technology companies are accelerating share repurchase activity in the face of economic uncertainty and record high share prices. This runs counter to our preference which is to invest for long-term growth. Apple (AAPL) spent $72 billion on share repurchases in the fiscal year ended September 30th, up from $67 billion last year. AAPL cash flows. … Continue reading Share Repurchase Activity Is Accelerating at The Expense of Investing for Growth
An effective recipe for crowding out innovation consists of companies taking on massive amounts of leverage coupled with a Federal Government that has a negative bias toward mergers and acquisitions. We are experiencing this phenomenon now with corporate debt & loans at approximately 56% of GDP (as of Q2, chart below) and a DOJ that … Continue reading High Debt Levels and Negative M&A Bias Are Crowding Out Innovation
We believe there will be multiple fiscal stimulus rounds. When one considers the stalled economy, negligible Real GDP growth and high unemployment, it would seem that this $2 Trillion stimulus round under discussion won't be sufficient to satisfy the narrative that Government needs to do more. When one factors in runaway entitlements (table below), it … Continue reading Multiple Fiscal Stimulus Rounds Are Coming. Good News for Equities. Bad News for The Real Economy.
This trend has accelerated since the Federal Reserve embarked on its money printing spree earlier this year. Using Bitcoin as a proxy, it is clear that cryptocurrencies have evolved beyond speculative investment status to become a store of value. There are a fixed number of Bitcoins that may be mined (21 million) which checks one … Continue reading Cryptocurrency Is Starting To Gain Recognition As A Store of Value
The punchline is that COVID-19 has had a dramatic and lasting negative impact on public transportation as measured by our analysis of Apple Maps data. Below we provide examples of some of America's largest cities and the trends around driving, walking and public transportation. It's probably not a good idea to go long muni bonds. … Continue reading COVID’s Lasting Impact On Mobility
For our inaugural CEO Hall of Fame class we selected CEO Hall of Fame members largely based upon their contribution toward building their respective companies as well as creating long-term shareholder value. Our selection process included a variety of quantitative and qualitative elements including financial operating performance, total stock returns, longevity, innovation, corporate governance and … Continue reading The CEORater CEO Hall of Fame Class of 2020
Fraud always spikes during frothy markets. If it feels like we are beating you over the head as it relates to Quality CEOs and CEO Integrity it is because we are. High Quality, High Integrity CEOs are the best preventive measure against getting burned by fraudulent companies. 2020 has delivered massive equity market valuation froth … Continue reading Fraud – A Sign of The Times
Robinhood and other Fintech firms are using Social Media-based principles and tools such as "gamification" software to drive customer growth and usage. Legacy Asset Managers are taking the M&A route. Order Flow Revenue or "Pay-to-Play Revenue" is the revenue that Asset Managers generate from directing equity and options order flow to various trade execution firms … Continue reading Two Different Approaches To Growth: Fintech vs. Legacy Asset Managers
"There is nothing more permanent than a temporary government program" - Milton Friedman. First is was the financial crisis of 2008 that "forced" the Fed to perform unnatural acts. It was at this time that the Fed introduced Quantitative Easing ("QE"). QE was to be a "one-and-done" program. That program remains part of the Fed's … Continue reading Muted GDP Will Force Investors to Become More Selective
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