It is difficult to imagine a scenario in which the U.S. economy does not experience stagflation. Record debt levels, low labor participation, muted long-term Real GDP growth, persistent inflation and the fact that the Federal Reserve is limited in its options to fight inflation leads us to believe that stagflation is imminent. Our premium TEK2day report analyzes CBO fiscal projections for Revenues, Outlays, Deficits and Public Debt. We highlight CBO projection line items where we believe CBO estimates have the greatest risk and why. In total the TEK2day “Stagflation Is Imminent” report provides 17 pages of analysis (not including appendix items). Click the “Read More” button to access this premium report (purchase price: $9.99, free to TEK2day Premium Subscribers).
Charts, tables and analysis include the following:
- Public Debt as a Percentage of GDP: 2021-2031 forecast (TEK2day forecast vs. CBO forecast);
- TEK2day long-term Real GDP Outlook;
- CBO Projections and TEK2day analysis: 2021-2031 for Revenues, Outlays, Deficits, and Debt by line item;
- CBO Projections for “Individual Income Taxes”: 2021-2031 (with TEK2day analysis);
- CBO Projections for “Payroll Taxes”: 2021-2031 (with TEK2day analysis);
- CBO Projections for “Corporate Income Taxes”: 2021-2031 (with TEK2day analysis);
- Real world inflation tracking (not CPI): crude oil, gasoline, used car values, home values, equities, materials and more;
- CBO Projections for “Mandatory and Discretionary Outlays”: 2021-2031 (with TEK2day analysis);
- Labor Participation Rates: February 2001-2021;
- Historical Outlays compared to Revenues: 1962-2020;
- Fiscal Surplus/Deficits: 1962-2020;
- Historical Public Debt: 1962-2020
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