Month: September 2021

Muted Real GDP Provides The Fed With Excuse Not To Taper. Stick To Quality.

Muted Real GDP Provides The Fed With Excuse Not To Taper. Stick To Quality.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of 3.6% real GDP for Q3, down from 3.7% a week earlier provides the Fed with the narrative necessary to not taper MBS asset purchases (currently approximately $40 billion per month), nor Treasury purchases (approximately $80 billion per month). Investors ought to stick to quality names. In the face of … Continue reading Muted Real GDP Provides The Fed With Excuse Not To Taper. Stick To Quality.

TEK2day Podcast Ep. 441: Insurers & Alternative Asset Investing with SS&C Technologies

TEK2day Podcast Ep. 441: Insurers & Alternative Asset Investing with SS&C Technologies

We published our TEK2day Spotlight report - The Evolving Insurance Industry - a few weeks ago. We hosted a follow-up podcast episode with two of the SS&C Technologies (ticker: SSNC), executives that were involved with that effort. You may view the video podcast at the YouTube link below. If any difficulties, simply visit CEORater's YouTube … Continue reading TEK2day Podcast Ep. 441: Insurers & Alternative Asset Investing with SS&C Technologies

Fed Officials Trading Behavior Is Disappointing, Not Surprising

Fed Officials Trading Behavior Is Disappointing, Not Surprising

One would think Fed officials would have the common sense to not trade in stocks at a time when the Fed's heavy hand dominates the capital markets. Fundamentals have mattered little since April 2020 as a result of the Fed's ultra-dovish monetary policy. Yet as reported by the Wall Street Journal certain Fed officials engaged … Continue reading Fed Officials Trading Behavior Is Disappointing, Not Surprising

Is State Street Lost At Sea?

Is State Street Lost At Sea?

If reports are true State Street has lost its way. If State Street (ticker: STT), CEO Ron O'Hanley truly hired Goldman Sachs to help he and the Board think through corporate strategy the company is toast. Any CEO who trusts his company to outsiders has lost his way. Did State Street truly need Goldman Sachs … Continue reading Is State Street Lost At Sea?

A Win for Intuit. A Loss for Facebook

A Win for Intuit. A Loss for Facebook

Intuit (ticker: INTU), recently announced that it had agreed to acquire Mailchimp, the marketing platform used by small and medium-sized businesses (we are a Mailchimp customer). Intuit is in the business of serving the SMB market. Facebook (ticker: FB), also serves SMBs and made a smart acquisition last year (Kustomer acquisition) to bolster its SMB … Continue reading A Win for Intuit. A Loss for Facebook

Interest Rates Follow Real GDP

Interest Rates Follow Real GDP

Interest rates have historically followed Real GDP. The below graph plots the 10-year Treasury at constant maturity vs. the year-over-year change in Real GDP as measured each quarter. It will be interesting for markets ("interesting" meaning "disruptive"), should the Fed tighten in what is now a slowing economy in Real GDP terms. Reach us at … Continue reading Interest Rates Follow Real GDP

Runaway Fiscal Spending Threatens Markets and The U.S. Economy

Runaway Fiscal Spending Threatens Markets and The U.S. Economy

Runaway fiscal spending threatens markets and the U.S. Economy. Investors hunt for real returns. Fiscal spending drives monetary policy (the Fed is after all an appendage of the Treasury), and the Fed's ultra-loose monetary policy is the culprit behind persistent price inflation. Price inflation is the pin that will prick the various bubbles across markets. … Continue reading Runaway Fiscal Spending Threatens Markets and The U.S. Economy

It Is Beginning To Look Like Stagflation

It Is Beginning To Look Like Stagflation

The Atlanta Fed's real GDP estimate of 3.7% is well below inflation as measured by the Fed (CPI of 5.4%) and well below any real world price inflation measure. We do not subscribe to the Fed's theory that price inflation is transitory. Our view is that price inflation will grow from here. If real GDP … Continue reading It Is Beginning To Look Like Stagflation

The Battery Is Key To The EV

The Battery Is Key To The EV

Our view is that the key to an EV's success is an inexpensive and reliable power source. That power source is of course batteries. Thus, if one tries to gauge who the EV OEMs of tomorrow may be, look no further than the current crop of EV Battery suppliers. For it would be far easier … Continue reading The Battery Is Key To The EV

Treasury Tapering Is Not Around The Corner

Treasury Tapering Is Not Around The Corner

It will be a few more months before the Federal Reserve slows the pace of Treasury purchases. Mortgage-backed securities are another ball of wax. However, insofar as Treasuries are concerned, tapering is not in the Fed's immediate future. Why? Our rationale is that if Congress is wrestling over a $3.5 Trillion spending bill (healthcare, climate … Continue reading Treasury Tapering Is Not Around The Corner