The Atlanta Fed’s real GDP estimate of 3.7% is well below inflation as measured by the Fed (CPI of 5.4%) and well below any real world price inflation measure. We do not subscribe to the Fed’s theory that price inflation is transitory. Our view is that price inflation will grow from here. If real GDP is running at 3.7%, what will it be next year? Low single-digit percentage real GDP (or lower), combined with mid-single digit to low-double digit price inflation, plus almost $30 trillion in national debt and multi-trillion dollar fiscal deficits are a recipe for Stagflation. Grab a copy of our book “Stagflation Is Imminent”, HERE. Access the Atlanta Fed’s “GDP Now” release HERE.
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