Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Month: March 2022
One thing that's for sure is that many companies are hesitant to get in front of bad news. Given that inflation in all forms is not going anywhere, we expect many companies to report Revenue and Earnings shortfalls in April as March quarter results and 2022 full year outlooks are communicated to investors. Inflation has … Continue reading Get Ready for EPS Misses
16 months ago we told you that SolarWinds (ticker: SWI) would not recover from the cyberattack levied against it that allowed cybercriminals to use infected SolarWinds software to view the source code of hundreds if not thousands of SolarWinds' corporate customers. SWI shares have yet to recover from what was at the time (December 18th … Continue reading SolarWinds Fallout Is Just Beginning
Last week we wrote that Treasury yield spreads between 30-year and 5-year Treasuries have not been this low since 2007. That spread was 18 basis points when we published and stood at five basis points as of Friday's market close. Treasury yields continue to rise and the yield curve continues to flatten as short-term treasury … Continue reading The Bond Market Is Bearish On the U.S. Economy
Speaking of a flattening of the yield curve, spreads between the 5 and 30-year Treasuries have not been this narrow since June 2007 (see chart below). Reach us at jmaietta@tek2day.com if you would like the Excel data behind the chart. Source: Treasury.gov; TEK2day.com. Click chart to expand.
We would prefer that the SEC focus on cracking down on fraud in its various permutations as opposed to forcing companies to report on carbon emissions and the like. This forced climate reporting initiative by the Biden Administration not only adds zero value to the investment decision-making process for serious institutional investors, it acts as … Continue reading Climate Reporting: The SEC’s Latest Make Work
PE firm Thoma Bravo is set to acquire Anaplan (tkr: PLAN) for $10.7 billion. That valuation implies an 18x Enterprise Value to Revenue (EV/Revenue) multiple on trailing revenue of $592 million. To us 18x revenue is a rich valuation in this environment where interest rates are climbing and recession is around the corner. Even if … Continue reading More Irrational Exuberance: Thoma Bravo to Acquire Anaplan for $10.7 Billion
It is inevitable that the U.S. Economy will enter recession this year should the Fed continue to tighten monetary policy as inflation persists. Wall Street is already seeing slowed activity with some M&A deals and credit pricings put on hold indefinitely or cancelled outright. The real economy will feel the negative effects of higher interest … Continue reading A Recession Is Inevitable
Our bet is the Fed will exit 2022 at 2%. If you look at the Fed over time, it has historically maintained interest rates close to the 2-year Treasury (see below). https://soundcloud.com/ceorater
Last year we predicted 2022 Real GDP in the 0-2% range (The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow cast for Q1'22 is 0.5% as of March 8th). A recession this year is inevitable as the Fed moves to increase the Fed Funds rate and migrates from Quantitative Easing to Quantitative Tightening (Thereby shrinking the money supply). The first … Continue reading Tangible Value When Inflation Persists
Our recent Blockchain article touched on the superior digital security offered by Blockchain/ Distributed Ledger Technologies ("DLT"). Over time we anticipate that legacy payment systems, workflow software and general transaction processing systems will be replaced by dedicated blockchain/ DLT networks. The Internet in its present form is riddled with cybersecurity risks. The current crop of … Continue reading Blockchain and Cybersecurity
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