On March 31st we told investors to be prepared for weak earnings. After almost 30 years in the capital markets one lesson learned is that sellsiders are slow to publish bad news. Therefore it is not terribly difficult to predict that the sellside will lower EPS estimates for 2023 and beyond when the June and September quarters are reported. Many other sellsiders will wait for formal 2023 guidance. The culprit is inflation and the related impact it will have on both operational expenses (higher OpEx, lower margins), as well as Revenue (there is a demand side to the inflation equation). Thus, many companies will be squeezed from both ends. Companies with floating rate debt or any type of debt that is exposed to changes in interest rates will obviously feel the most EPS pressure (although interest expense provides a bit of a tax shelter). I would be curious about hedges on debt as well as operational hedges (hedging input costs, hedging currency), were I quizzing management teams on EPS calls.
