Inflation, interest rates and OpEx are climbing while demand softens for many companies. One glance at the table below shows that layoffs over the past two months are fairly widespread across industries. We believe that more layoffs are coming as inflation and interest rates rise. Rates will accelerate higher in June should the Fed make good on its promise to trim its balance sheet of Treasuries and other Government agency securities. Further, our sense is that a number of companies with open job reqs really do not intend to fill those jobs in the near-term until they have more visibility into the inflation picture. Too many CEOs and CFOs take the Fed at its word unfortunately and believe Powell’s propaganda. The truth is the Fed has already lost the inflation battle as it can’t afford to allow rates to climb to where they need to be to slow inflation. Inflation will slow naturally as elevated prices eventually cool demand. Jobs will be lost as part of this natural economic healing process.
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