Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Month: July 2022
It is unclear how Lina Khan's FTC picking fights with the largest Technology companies is making markets more competitive. (AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, INTU, META, MSFT) In the case of META, our view is that M&A is the best way for the company to get back on track. We would be in favor of META making … Continue reading Lina Khan’s FTC Is A Bully
The PCE index came in today at 6.76% Year-Over-Year growth, up from May's 6.32% Year-Over-Year print. The chart below plots the PCE index vs. the CPI in terms of the Year-Over-Year percentage change as measured each month.The consensus amongst investors seems to be that the Fed will pivot in Q1 2023. We are not so … Continue reading Investors Shrug Off More Inflation Data
Here are a few notable layoffs over the past week. Shopify (ticker: SHOP) and Rivian (ticker: RIVN), led the way. Click here to expand table: https://layoffs.fyi/
META's remake is no sure bet. The Facebook blue business is yesterday's business. Its best attribute is that it generates significant free cash flow that may be deployed toward remaking the company.Instagram is in the process of being retooled. IG's recommendation algos are being rewritten to more closely match TikTok's - meaning users would see … Continue reading META’s Remake Is No Sure Bet
Despite what the Biden Administration and Federal Reserve would have us believe the U.S. is in a recession. The Atlanta Fed estimates Q2 Real GDP at -1.2% and we will get the official Real GDP figure Thursday July 28th at 8:30am ET. The official figure will be revised in the weeks to come (probably downward). … Continue reading House of Cards
Below are several areas where we would expect softness to creep into Microsoft's business - primarily in the back half of the calendar year (recall that MSFT is on a June 30 fiscal year end). MSFT reports today after the close. Office 365 Commercial revenue: We would expect seat revenue growth to soften in 2H … Continue reading MSFT – What To Look For Today
What is the logic to suggest that a "short & shallow" recession is likely? Isn't it more likely things will get worse before they get better? The U.S., Europe and China are experiencing economic slowdowns. The U.S. is in a recession if you believe the Atlanta Fed (GDPNow for Q2 2022 is -1.6%. See GDPNow … Continue reading A Short & Shallow Recession?
Google finally combined its Google Wallet and G-Pay apps within the U.S. with Wallet as the surviving app. Google Wallet digests G-Pay. Wallet is the surviving app and enables users to retain G-Pay's NFC payments (cardless payments), capability. In addition, Wallet enables users to include other cardless transaction types such as loyalty cards, gift cards, … Continue reading Google Is Getting Its Payments Act Together
Apple (ticker: AAPL) reports earnings this week, which got me thinking about former Apple co-founder and CEO Steve Jobs. In October it will have been 11 years since his passing. There likely will not be another Technology CEO in my lifetime that will get as much out of his/her employees as Jobs got out of … Continue reading There Will Never Be Another Steve Jobs
VW CEO Herbert Diess will step down. This news is hardly a surprise as legacy Auto OEMs struggle to transition to the EV world. The transition to EVs is difficult for legacy Auto OEMs from a financial, cultural and operational execution standpoint. Tesla (ticker: TSLA), capitalized on the first mover advantage to capture the market-leading … Continue reading When Incumbents Try To Disrupt an Industry
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