We Still Have A Housing Bubble

We Still Have A Housing Bubble

The housing bubble persists. However, while home values continue to appreciate, the rate of growth – both year-over-year and sequential – is slowing.

  • We analyzed Zillow data (Zillow Home Value Index): We analyzed zillow residential housing data for all 50 states and the District of Columbia across 22 years (January 2000 – June 2022).
  • Click HERE for our Excel file.
  • Housing benefited greatly from the Fed’s money printing: (See our Excel file for more detail.)
    • A number of states enjoyed home price appreciation of approximately 50% or more from April 2020 (when the Fed introduced its COVID monetary expansion policies), through June 2022 led by:
      • Arizona (61%), Idaho (57%), Utah (56%), Florida (56%), Montana (52%), Nevada (50%), Georgia (49%), North Carolina (49%) and Tennessee (48%).
    • Median home prices across all 50 states increased by 35% from April 2020 through June 2022 – the period marked by fiscal and monetary stimulus. For comparison, median home prices increased by only 29% from March 2010 through March 2020.
  • Home values are cooling: (See our Excel file for more detail.)
    • Home values are appreciating, albeit at a slower rate.
      • The sequential percentage increase in average home values slowed in all but 12 states in June 2022.
    • We would expect home values to decline as mortgage rates continue to rise and as the economy softens.
      • 2011 was the last time many states saw a decline in home values.