Month: August 2022

No QT as Far as The Eye Can See

No QT as Far as The Eye Can See

We wrote yesterday that we would be surprised if the Fed follows through on its stated plan to reduce its balance sheet by $95 billion per month as it seeks to unwind the heavy hand it played in 2020 and 2021 by subsidizing fiscal stimulus programs and executing its QE program. Robust Fed balance sheet … Continue reading No QT as Far as The Eye Can See

The Economic Genie Is Out Of The Bottle

The Economic Genie Is Out Of The Bottle

It does not matter what the Fed does with the Fed Funds Rate at this point, the global economy is softening and is likely to get worse. Whether the Fed ultimately takes rates to 3.5% or 4.0% will have little effect on the macroeconomic backdrop (QT is a different story). More job cuts. Large Tech … Continue reading The Economic Genie Is Out Of The Bottle

Amazon’s iRobot Acquisition

Amazon’s iRobot Acquisition

We wrote about Amazon's (AMZN), project Vesta in 2019 (click HERE). Along those lines, Amazon recently announced that it plans to acquire iRobot (IRBT), a deal which will accelerate Amazon's Vesta strategy, which is essentially to gather information about the home via an autonomous robot (good news for the staff at Amazon Robotics). The folks … Continue reading Amazon’s iRobot Acquisition

Apple + Disney

Apple + Disney

We have previously written that it would make sense for Apple (AAPL) to acquire Disney (DIS). Apple and Disney could certainly hold informal talks now, but a letter of intent, formal due diligence and the purchase agreement negotiation would all have to wait until there is a new Administration in the White House in my … Continue reading Apple + Disney

A Fed Hike In August?

A Fed Hike In August?

If July Core CPI comes in higher than the 5.9% figure reported for June we believe there will be a 50% probability that the Fed could raise the Fed Funds Rate in August rather than wait for the September 20-21 FOMC meeting. The Fed is nowhere near a neutral rate (as we wrote earlier this … Continue reading A Fed Hike In August?

Yield Curve Inversion Implies Near-Term Risk

Yield Curve Inversion Implies Near-Term Risk

The Treasury yield curve continued to invert as short rates climbed higher and long rates fell. The 1-Year climbed to 3.14%, the 2-Year rose to 3.10% while the 7, 10, 20 and 30-Year Treasury yields all fell (see table below). The Treasury market is telling us that it expects a near-term recession by way of … Continue reading Yield Curve Inversion Implies Near-Term Risk