We expect headline CPI for July to modestly retreat from June’s 9.1% print when CPI data is released on August 10th. Our rationale is simple – the price of oil has retreated.

• We expect CPI less Energy to climb as our real world experience suggests that price increases have broadly accelerated.
• Similarly, we expect Core CPI (CPI less Food and Energy) to accelerate from June’s 5.9% rate.
• The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland directionally agrees with us. View the Bank’s CPInowcast for the months of July and August HERE.

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