The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates Real GDP for Q3 at 1.4%. That is likely an optimistic outlook and 1% growth is certainly nothing to write home about. Get used to it however as Real GDP in the -1% to 1% range is likely our future for the next decade or two given elevated prices and suffocating debt ($30.8 Trillion at last count).
We are in a range bound, stagflationary economic reality as a result of elevated prices. So long as food and energy prices remain elevated (wait until winter on the latter), it is unreasonable to expect robust consumer spending. Even if the year-over-year CPI were to flatline tomorrow, prices for most goods and services would still be materially higher versus 18-24 months ago. Food and energy prices need to revert to the mean before the average consumer would ramp-up spending on discretionary items. Year-to-date a dip in home prices and stock portfolios are the only price declines consumers have experienced.
Before I forget, college tuition prices are about to go higher given that the Federal Government is now subsidizing college loans. Government subsidies are only good for causing higher prices and moral hazard. They do not provide a real economic benefit. Remove the Government subsidies and prices for tuition, healthcare and other subsidized services will plummet. Here’s a link to the Biden propaganda (Govt. subsidies of college tuition).
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