Month: December 2022

The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update

The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update

Total Treasury and Agency security holdings were reduced by $12.5 billion for the week-ended December 28th 2022, were reduced by $34.3 billion over the last 4 weeks and were reduced by $357.9 billion for the year. Fed Balance Sheet – Treasuries: The Fed’s Treasury security holdings were $635 million lower over the last week, $16.9 billion … Continue reading The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update

Price Inflation Ate Savings

Price Inflation Ate Savings

Price inflation was the story of 2021 and 2022. Price inflation is apparent in the Personal Income figures below (see table). The below table includes raw data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis combined with TEK2day analysis. Goods and Services price increases and Interest Expense increases significantly outpaced Personal Income growth. (See the links below … Continue reading Price Inflation Ate Savings

Equities Over The Next 2-3 Months

Equities Over The Next 2-3 Months

Back to the office, equities will sell off. We expect that equities will trade off when investors return to the office in January in anticipation of soft earnings. Technology stocks will be hit the hardest. Another leg down on EPS reports. When earnings are reported in January and early February, there will be another leg … Continue reading Equities Over The Next 2-3 Months

M&A Activity Continues To Slide

M&A Activity Continues To Slide

Yours truly received some pushback end of last year when I said that higher interest rates and a slowing economy would slow the pace of Tech M&A activity. The number of Tech M&A deals in November was down more than 47% year-over-year. Tech M&A volume has experienced double-digit percentage, year-over-year declines since February of this … Continue reading M&A Activity Continues To Slide

The U.S. Economy’s Debt Burden

The U.S. Economy’s Debt Burden

The growing interest expense on the expanding Public Debt is an albatross the U.S. Economy must bear at a time when Washington continues to run Trillion Dollar-plus fiscal deficits. This debt burden will consume an increasing percentage of Government revenue and will be a significant headwind to Real GDP growth for decades to come. The … Continue reading The U.S. Economy’s Debt Burden

The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update

The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update

Total Treasury and Agency security holdings were reduced by $18.6 billion for the week-ended December 21st 2022. Fed Balance Sheet – Treasuries: The Fed’s Treasury security holdings were $13.2 billion lower over the last week and $35.9 billion lower on a rolling 4-week total basis. Fed Balance Sheet – Agencies: The Fed’s Government Agency security holdings were … Continue reading The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update

We Predicted Elon Musk’s Behavior

We Predicted Elon Musk’s Behavior

Given the recent Elon Musk drama I point you to our Musk-related articles which include our CEORater CEO Personality Analytics work. In short, Musk is a volatile personality. The Tesla / Twitter drama was all too predictable. CEOs Matter: Elon Musk. GM’s Mary Barra vs. Tesla’s Elon Musk – A CEO Personality Comparison Elon Musk … Continue reading We Predicted Elon Musk’s Behavior