Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Month: December 2022
Total Treasury and Agency security holdings were reduced by $12.5 billion for the week-ended December 28th 2022, were reduced by $34.3 billion over the last 4 weeks and were reduced by $357.9 billion for the year. Fed Balance Sheet – Treasuries: The Fed’s Treasury security holdings were $635 million lower over the last week, $16.9 billion … Continue reading The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update
Price inflation was the story of 2021 and 2022. Price inflation is apparent in the Personal Income figures below (see table). The below table includes raw data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis combined with TEK2day analysis. Goods and Services price increases and Interest Expense increases significantly outpaced Personal Income growth. (See the links below … Continue reading Price Inflation Ate Savings
Back to the office, equities will sell off. We expect that equities will trade off when investors return to the office in January in anticipation of soft earnings. Technology stocks will be hit the hardest. Another leg down on EPS reports. When earnings are reported in January and early February, there will be another leg … Continue reading Equities Over The Next 2-3 Months
Yours truly received some pushback end of last year when I said that higher interest rates and a slowing economy would slow the pace of Tech M&A activity. The number of Tech M&A deals in November was down more than 47% year-over-year. Tech M&A volume has experienced double-digit percentage, year-over-year declines since February of this … Continue reading M&A Activity Continues To Slide
The growing interest expense on the expanding Public Debt is an albatross the U.S. Economy must bear at a time when Washington continues to run Trillion Dollar-plus fiscal deficits. This debt burden will consume an increasing percentage of Government revenue and will be a significant headwind to Real GDP growth for decades to come. The … Continue reading The U.S. Economy’s Debt Burden
The most recent bird flu is the reason the egg trade has provided for the most recent egg price increases. The 220% increase in the price of eggs over the past year dwarfs the 49% increase reported by the CPI over approximately the same 12 month period. This is one of a number of examples … Continue reading Why Is My Eggnog So Expensive?
We've touted NASDAQ 9,000 as a bottom for over a year. That's only 14% off of current levels. Many believe that Technology stocks are cheap, but not in my book. Not in a world where the long-term Fed Funds rate settles around 300 BPS and absent QE. No more Fed put? I can easily imagine … Continue reading No Fed Put – NASDAQ 7,000?
Total Treasury and Agency security holdings were reduced by $18.6 billion for the week-ended December 21st 2022. Fed Balance Sheet – Treasuries: The Fed’s Treasury security holdings were $13.2 billion lower over the last week and $35.9 billion lower on a rolling 4-week total basis. Fed Balance Sheet – Agencies: The Fed’s Government Agency security holdings were … Continue reading The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update
They are rolling over at FTX. Sam Bankrun-Fraud gets to stay at his parents' house (what did they know?), for the time being, but with his co-founders rolling over and admitting guilt in the FTX fraud, I can't imagine Bankrun-Fraud not being locked up for the rest of his life. The real question is will … Continue reading Crypto Crumbles
Given the recent Elon Musk drama I point you to our Musk-related articles which include our CEORater CEO Personality Analytics work. In short, Musk is a volatile personality. The Tesla / Twitter drama was all too predictable. CEOs Matter: Elon Musk. GM’s Mary Barra vs. Tesla’s Elon Musk – A CEO Personality Comparison Elon Musk … Continue reading We Predicted Elon Musk’s Behavior
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