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Despite today’s uptick in Consumer Confidence, I suspect the measure will turn on a dime (negative sentiment), early next year as job losses mount, as rates remain elevated, as the market rolls over and as the housing market collapses.
- I expect forced selling in the housing market whether it be of primary homes, secondary homes or investment properties (the overextended Airbnb property “owner”), as rates increase and as job losses mount.
- Forced sales will unfreeze the residential real estate market and reset prices significantly lower.
- More job losses will hit after Christmas.
- The housing market will collapse sometime in late Q1, early Q2.
- Q1 will be ugly for the equity market as companies issue initial 2023 guidance in January and early February. We of course expect that initial guidance to be weak, much like the Federal Government is weak insofar as its ability to balance the budget is concerned. The $1.7 trillion Omnibus bill will not help Americans, but will further dilute the value of the Dollar, thereby hollowing out what remains of America’s middle class.
- Here’s a prediction: gold will be the best performing asset when we look back at 2020-2030.