Adobe’s business will slow in our view as Technology companies, Media companies and companies in general reduce headcount, thereby negatively impacting ADBE’s existing customer base as well as Adobe’s ability to generate new subscription revenue (ARR). Our sense is that the U.S. economy softened in 2H February and month-to-date March.
- The key metric to watch over the course of fiscal 2023 will be Adobe’s “Net New Digital Media ARR” (see historical numbers and our estimates below). This metric implies that revenue growth will slow.
- ADBE shares are not outrageously valued (valuation below), but what do you pay for a firm that is growing, albeit at a slower pace?
- ADBE reports this Wednesday 3/15 with its EPS call scheduled for 5:00pm ET. Reach us with any questions at email@example.com or 415-890-5712.