Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Month: April 2023
One of my favorite features of Google's Pixel phone is that it is easy to repair. Apple's iPhone has multiple points where the screen connects to the circuitry. This creates repair complexity. Google's Pixel phone has a singular connection point between the display and circuitry. This makes for a simple repair (assuming you have the … Continue reading DIY Repair Google’s Pixel Phone
Whether it is the FTC or Britain's Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), I believe these Government agencies often block proposed mergers and acquisitions simply to justify their existence. They are government agencies after all and require taxpayer funds (or printed money) to survive. The CMA's MSFT decision adds zero value, will hinder innovation, and demonstrates … Continue reading The U.K. Blocking MSFT’s Proposed Activision Deal
The full promise of Large Language Models (LLMs) won't be delivered until LLMs are capable of understanding nuanced industry specific commercial data. Until such time, LLMs will be productivity enhancers (think Google Assistant), capable of automating routine tasks but incapable of operating complex processes. In order for the above to happen, LLMs will need to … Continue reading The Full Promise of Large Language Models
We told you back in March that more bank failures are coming. This banking crisis will be with us for years (the core of the last banking crisis lasted from 2008-2012), regardless of whether every bank failure makes the front page of the WSJ or the FT. Too many banks got overly aggressive as a … Continue reading This Banking Crisis Will Be Here For Years
The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP, bail out/QE) had approximately $81.3 billion in outstanding loans as of Wednesday this week, up from $74.0 billion (+ $7.3 billion) a week ago. The “other credit extensions” line item of $170.4 billion includes the FDIC loans made to regional banks. This figure is down from $172.6 billion (- $2.2 billion) … Continue reading Weekly Update: Bank Term Funding Program
The Fed's Treasury holdings were unchanged the week ended April 26th. The Fed reduced its Agency holdings by $17 billion over the same period. The Fed's QT effort has been underwhelming in our view. Too bad, as shrinking the money supply through the Fed's balance sheet is a more effective tightening tool than is manipulating … Continue reading The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update
Here is hoping that the Federal Reserve allows the Office segment of the CRE market to crash. The Office sector overbuilt circa 2011 through last year as rates were low and deep-pocketed investors were flush with cash. I recall the skyline changing across cities such as Washington D.C/ Northern VA, Boston, New York, San Francisco … Continue reading CRE Office Property Value Reset
My outlook as it relates to AWS, Azure, Google Cloud Platform (GCP) and Oracle's cloud server business is unchanged as compared to the article we wrote back in January (HERE). Fewer startups will be built upon remote server platforms (AWS and Azure being numbers 1 and 2) as most startups are cutting heads or worse … Continue reading AWS, Azure, GCP and Oracle
Weak earnings reports are on tap for this month and next as a soft macro environment and high input costs pressure margins. What's next for Software companies? Cautious outlooks for 2023 and 2024 and additional layoffs. More layoffs. Some companies will cut heads and announce those cuts on the March Q EPS call while other … Continue reading 2023 Won’t Be Pretty For Software Companies
The best CEOs drive the business during economic downturns as well as during good times. Having operating targets large and small across all facets of the operation supported by incentive-based compensation systems greatly increases the probability of driving superior operating performance. The best CEOs define a mother mission. It is ideal if the mission is … Continue reading The Best CEOs
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