TEK2day

Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets

    Month: April 2023

    • Commercial Bankruptcies Climb

      Commercial Bankruptcies Y-O-Y: Year-Over-Year commercial bankruptcy filings were up 24% to 2,305 in March 2023 compared to 1,854 in March 2022. Commercial chapter 11 filings were up 79% to 548 compared to 306 filings a year ago (March 2022, source Epiq Bankruptcy). Commercial Bankruptcies month-to-month: Month-to-month commercial bankruptcy filings were up 35% to 2,305 in…

    • How Long Before Housing Bottoms?

      Housing peaked in June 2022 as measured by the Case-Shiller index. We believe home values will continue to roll over as: 1.) banks continue to tighten; 2.) mortgage rates remain elevated (we don’t expect the Fed to pivot any time soon); 3.) unemployment moves higher; 4.) pricing for goods and services remains elevated versus 2020…

    • Weekly Update: Bank Term Funding Program

    • The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update 

      The Fed reduced its Treasury holdings by $14.1 billion this week after zero movement last week. The money supply continues to shrink. The prices for goods and services ought to continue to fall so long as the money supply continues to shrink.

    • Bank Failures: A Look at 2001 – Today

      We looked at FDIC bank failures from the year 2001 through today. Here is a brief summary as told using tables and graphs.

    • How Big Is YouTube? It’s Larger Than Netflix.

      YouTube is larger than Netflix (NFLX). We estimate that YouTube generates annual revenue of approximately $43.3 billion (versus fiscal year 2022 Revenue of $31.6 billion for Netflix).

    • Will Netflix’s Co-CEO Model Work?

      The most interesting thing about Netflix (ticker: NFLX, due to report April 18th at 4pm ET), is its Co-CEO model. Will it work long-term? Time will tell. Co-CEOs usually do not work. Today Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters share the CEO title at Netflix. The way I view NFLX’s leadership model is that Sarandos is…

    • We Are In A Recession

      We are in and have been in a recession since early/mid 2020. It will get worse.

    • Weekly Update: Bank Term Funding Program

      FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/

    • The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update 

      The Fed’s Treasury security holdings and Agency security holdings were unchanged the week-ending Wednesday April 12th. This is a dramatic change from the prior week which saw the Fed reduce its Treasury holdings by $49.7 billion – a record amount for its QT program. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is sending mixed messages to the market.