Investors should focus on the month-to-month change in Core CPI tomorrow. The month-to-month change in Core CPI for each of the months of March, April and May 2023 was 0.4.
June’s year-over-year Headline CPI figure will come down significantly when the figure is printed tomorrow at 8:30 am. The reason for the year-over-year deceleration is because of the tough year-over-year comp as we wrote about HERE.
Our Headline CPI estimates are highlighted in yellow in the below table.
I don’t believe there is much value in analyzing year-over-year percentage price changes at this juncture. It is more important to understand the month-to-month drivers of price changes in goods and services.
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