For the second consecutive week, the Fed took the week off as it relates to Treasury activity. This is a policy pause in my view as doing nothing with the money supply is more powerful than playing with the Fed Funds rate. Treasuries: The Fed’s Treasury security holdings were unchanged for the week-ended August 30th and … Continue reading The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update
Month: August 2023
This week’s BTFP activity: The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP, bail out/QE) had approximately $107.5 billion in outstanding loans as of Wednesday this week, up from $107.4 billion (+ $0.1 billion) a week ago. The “other credit extensions” line item of $134.4 billion includes the FDIC loans made to regional banks. This figure is down from $137.2 … Continue reading Weekly Update: Bank Term Funding Program
I would not be surprised if Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg were to become full time Meta Platforms Chairman in 2024 after handing the CEO title to an internal executive who has been loyal over the years. I don't pay close enough attention to Meta to know who that person may be. One thing is … Continue reading How Much Longer Will Zuckerberg Remain CEO?
Amazon, Apple, Disney, Google, Meta, Microsoft and Netflix have an advantage over other content companies given their size. By size I am primarily referring to market cap and size of balance sheet. Apple (AAPL, $2.94 Trillion market cap) and Microsoft (MSFT, $2.43 Trillion market cap) are in a league of their own with their nose … Continue reading Apple’s VisionPro Provides A Defensible Edge In The Content Space
The U.S. economy is resilient in large part due to the fact that the Federal Government prints money that is then allocated to citizens through various "Income Security" programs. People then spend that money which is recorded as GDP. These programs are divorced from productivity which is why they devalue the Dollar and cause inflation … Continue reading Why Is The U.S. Economy Resilient?
Last week we wrote about upcoming Treasury auctions. You may ask "What does Treasury estimate as its borrowing requirements for the balance of the year?" After all, more borrowing equals more Treasury debt. Higher interest rates mean Treasury interest expense is growing as a percentage of Federal tax revenue, which will crowd out fiscal spending … Continue reading Treasury Debt Going Higher As Treasury Borrows
I'm happy to see the ESG backlash of late. I'm equally happy to see BlackRock's Larry Fink having to fight off of the back foot. Fink's corner may have thrown in the towel in fact. I agree with Lynn Forester de Rothschild - throw ESG in the dustbin (video below). Great management teams (the "G" … Continue reading Throw ESG In The Dustbin
A week ago there was an 86.0% probability that the Fed would hold rates at its next FOMC meeting on September 20th. Today that probability is 78.5% as measured by the CME's FedWatch tool (HERE). Our view since the Fed's last FOMC meeting on July 26th has been that the Fed will hike rates by … Continue reading How The Fed’s September Rate Hike Will Play Out
If you have enjoyed our writings and research on CEO Personality Analytics, you may enjoy the Apple TV+ documentary about former Nissan Renault Chairman and CEO Carlos Ghosn. We link to the trailer below (view this article on our Website to view the trailer and the recent Forbes interview with Mr. Ghosn). We have also … Continue reading CEO Personality Analytics – The Case of Carlos Ghosn
Central Bankers are not economic saviors. They are a primary reason why the Dollar has lost 99% of its purchasing power. The other primary culprit of course is fiscal overspending. This week in Jackson WY too many talking heads from financial news networks such as Bloomberg and CNBC have asked Central Bankers what to do … Continue reading Central Bankers Are Not Economic Saviors