Category: Asset Management

The Shrinking Monetary Base

The Shrinking Monetary Base

The Monetary Base (currency in circulation plus bank reserve balances), continues to shrink, declining to its lowest level in October since January of 2021 (see charts below). The Monetary Base is down approximately 17% from its peak in December 2021, driven by lower bank reserves (down 27% in October from their high in September 2021), … Continue reading The Shrinking Monetary Base

The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update

The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update

The Fed reduced its Treasury and Government Agency security holdings by $4.8 billion over the week-ended November 23rd - essentially no change. The Fed has reduced its balance sheet holdings by $80.7 billion over the last 4 weeks as it modestly tightens monetary policy by shrinking the money supply (QT) and raising its Fed Funds … Continue reading The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update

ARMs Will Drag Great Britain and The U.S.

ARMs Will Drag Great Britain and The U.S.

Approximately 1.2 million residential mortgages in Great Britain are adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs). As the Bank of England (BOE), continues to move interest rates higher (3% rate today and likely moving to 3.5% on December 15th), the average ARM holder will have to absorb significantly higher monthly payments which translates to commensurately less disposable income. … Continue reading ARMs Will Drag Great Britain and The U.S.

Coinbase Is A Bankruptcy Waiting To Happen

Coinbase Is A Bankruptcy Waiting To Happen

Coinbase (COIN), is a walking bankruptcy absent an immediate, dramatic recovery in Retail customer sentiment. The probability of an imminent resurgence in Retail enthusiasm for Crypto is close to zero given 2022's various Crypto failures including the recent FTX fraud (FTX founder Sam Bankrun Fraud needs to be arrested ASAP). It hardly bodes well for … Continue reading Coinbase Is A Bankruptcy Waiting To Happen

Saying “No” To Deals Avoids Blowups

Saying “No” To Deals Avoids Blowups

Tiger Global paid Bain & Co. $100 million to perform due diligence, yet Bain somehow missed that FTX was a fraud. Helpful hint: check the bank statement next time. Then, work your way backwards through the cash flow chain. I can understanding hiring industry experts or functional specialists to assist with your internal investment due … Continue reading Saying “No” To Deals Avoids Blowups

Not So Fast. This Won’t Be Quick & Painless.

Not So Fast. This Won’t Be Quick & Painless.

The 2008 downturn and the current downcycle have similarities as far as investor sentiment is concerned. We believe that investor sentiment will sour early next year as Q4 2022 earnings reports come in. 2023 earnings estimates and stock prices will move lower off of the Q4 EPS reports. Early cycle disbelief. I recall that in … Continue reading Not So Fast. This Won’t Be Quick & Painless.

Crypto Is Not Money, Nor An Asset

Crypto Is Not Money, Nor An Asset

Crypto is purely a speculative vehicle with zero underlying value. Thus, why would advisors ever recommend that clients purchase crypto in their portfolios? Not Money: Crypto currency is not a store of value. Crypto currency is not a medium of exchange. Ever try buying something with Bitcoin, even at its peak? Massive haircuts at the … Continue reading Crypto Is Not Money, Nor An Asset

Coinbase: What’s Yours Is Mine

Coinbase: What’s Yours Is Mine

Just a reminder that if Coinbase (ticker: COIN), was to file for bankruptcy protection, customer assets would be considered Coinbase property. Why would any retail or institutional investor ever engage Coinbase as a custodian given that risk? The excerpt below is from COIN's 10Q filing: Moreover, because custodially held crypto assets may be considered to … Continue reading Coinbase: What’s Yours Is Mine

Bob Iger’s Back as Disney CEO

Bob Iger’s Back as Disney CEO

It is hardly a surprise that Bob Iger is back as Disney (DIS) CEO. One of the first operational changes that former Disney (DIS), CEO Bob Chapek made was to put management layers between himself and Creative which was far from the optimal leadership structure for churning out consistently great content - a prerequisite for … Continue reading Bob Iger’s Back as Disney CEO