Category: Automotive

The Weakening Consumer

The Weakening Consumer

Delinquency rates across loan types are increasing as: 1.) debt loads and interest rates / interest expense grow and, 2.) consumers lose their jobs. Further weakening: We believe the consumer will weaken further as: 1.) the Fed tightens monetary policy, 2.) prices for goods and services remain elevated and, 3.) companies continue to lay off … Continue reading The Weakening Consumer

Rates Going Higher. Equities Going Lower.

Rates Going Higher. Equities Going Lower.

Coinbase up 12% because the company is cutting staff? They can't cut quick enough as crypto trading falls off. ChatGPT at 145x revenue? There are plenty of Technology companies that continue to trade at 20x revenue. Despite the pronounced pullback in Tech valuations over the course of 2022, there is further room for valuations to … Continue reading Rates Going Higher. Equities Going Lower.

We Predicted Elon Musk’s Behavior

We Predicted Elon Musk’s Behavior

Given the recent Elon Musk drama I point you to our Musk-related articles which include our CEORater CEO Personality Analytics work. In short, Musk is a volatile personality. The Tesla / Twitter drama was all too predictable. CEOs Matter: Elon Musk. GM’s Mary Barra vs. Tesla’s Elon Musk – A CEO Personality Comparison Elon Musk … Continue reading We Predicted Elon Musk’s Behavior

Not So Fast. This Won’t Be Quick & Painless.

Not So Fast. This Won’t Be Quick & Painless.

The 2008 downturn and the current downcycle have similarities as far as investor sentiment is concerned. We believe that investor sentiment will sour early next year as Q4 2022 earnings reports come in. 2023 earnings estimates and stock prices will move lower off of the Q4 EPS reports. Early cycle disbelief. I recall that in … Continue reading Not So Fast. This Won’t Be Quick & Painless.

Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decline Further

Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decline Further

The Manheim/Cox Automotive team released its used vehicle price index through the first 15 days of October. Used vehicle values continued to decline as one would expect. We expect further declines this year and next as we wrote back in early October. Used vehicle valuations and sales are typically a leading indicator as it relates … Continue reading Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decline Further

The Ticking Consumer Time Bomb

The Ticking Consumer Time Bomb

Consumer spending is poised to take a nose dive. Outstanding consumer credit has expanded to approximately $911 Billion at a time when credit card interest rates are approaching 17% and likely to go higher (see chart below, click the caption link to expand the chart). As the Federal Reserve lifts interest rates and pushes the … Continue reading The Ticking Consumer Time Bomb