Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Category: Economy
The Justice Department's Antitrust chief Jonathan Kanter is misguided in his comments about the Private Equity industry. Mr. Kanter ought to look to the Federal Reserve for perverting markets through its actions over the past decade-plus, especially during the April 2020-March 2022 period. If Mr. Kanter wishes to place blame somewhere place it at the … Continue reading The Fed Is To Blame, Not Private Equity
CEOs and Institutional Investors should not count on strategic acquirers or PE firms to bail out underperforming stocks (or private company holdings for that matter). Not only is the cost of capital significantly higher for would-be acquirers, but target company revenue and profitability forecasts have substantially less visibility and therefore more risk today than they … Continue reading Don’t Count On M&A To Bail You Out
The New York Fed released its quarterly report on Household Debt and Credit this past week. Consumer strength is waning, not gaining. Loan delinquencies and foreclosures are up across auto loans and mortgage debt which is primarily where debt expansion has occurred in prior months. There are a number of charts between pages 3-40 that … Continue reading Consumer Strength Is Waning
Over the past several months we have written that the new economic normal means a target CPI in the 3-4% range and muted Real GDP in the 0-2% range. Interest rates can't go back to the Volcker days as Treasury would not be able to refinance its debt at double-digit rates. We could however see … Continue reading What Will The “New Normal” Look Like?
Inflation, interest rates and OpEx are climbing while demand softens for many companies. One glance at the table below shows that layoffs over the past two months are fairly widespread across industries. We believe that more layoffs are coming as inflation and interest rates rise. Rates will accelerate higher in June should the Fed make … Continue reading More Layoffs Are Coming
On March 31st we told investors to be prepared for weak earnings. After almost 30 years in the capital markets one lesson learned is that sellsiders are slow to publish bad news. Therefore it is not terribly difficult to predict that the sellside will lower EPS estimates for 2023 and beyond when the June and … Continue reading Earnings Estimates Will Be Revised Downward
Some months ago we stated that the NASDAQ Composite had 40-50% downside. On March 8th we said another 20-30% downside. This implies a NASDAQ Composite of around 9,000. Thus, we have further to fall. Interest Rates: Rates are going higher regardless of what the Fed does (other than more QE of course). Economy: There will … Continue reading NASDAQ: Further To Fall
Inflation as measured by the CPI will persist above the Fed's target rate of 2% over the long-term. Why? Because as Milton Friedman said: "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in … Continue reading CPI Will Persist Above The Fed’s Target
We do not believe that investors fully appreciate how fragile the U.S. economy is. Our view is that the U.S. economy is in a recession and that this period will be followed by long-term muted growth given: 1.) the enormous U.S. Government debt load ($30.4 trillion), 2.) persistent price inflation, 3.) a consumption-driven economy rather … Continue reading The U.S. Economy Is Long-Term Fragile
The Fed raised its Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points today as we and many others expected. The problem is that it is too little too late. It will be impossible for the Federal Reserve and its perma-dove Chairman Jerome Powell to take CPI back down to 2% in relatively short order without causing … Continue reading The Fed Won’t Have A Free Lunch
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