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Powell may be forced to lower rates while inflation remains elevated. Price inflation as measured by CPI won't get down to the Fed's 2% target without unemployment rising if history tells us anything (See below chart: Unemployment Rate = Red, CPI = Green). Source: click here to enlarge chart. Core CPI will likely remain above … Continue reading Powell’s Attempt To Talk Down Inflation Will Fail
10-year Treasury yields dropped last week from 4.93% on Halloween to 4.58% today as Treasury slowed its pace of new issues and as jobs data was revised downward. However, at some point Treasury is going to rollover a bunch of short-term debt to finance Government operations (as well as longer maturity issues that are due … Continue reading Don’t Get Too Comfortable With The Pullback In the 10-Year Treasury Yield. It Is Going Higher.
This week's BTFP activity was muted. The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP, bail out/QE) had approximately $109.1 billion in outstanding loans as of Wednesday this week, flat with $109.1 billion a week ago. The “other credit extensions” line item of $46.8 billion includes the FDIC loans made to regional banks. This figure is down from $48.3 billion … Continue reading Weekly Update: Bank Term Funding Program
The Fed is likely done hiking its Fed Funds rate. However, the Fed ramped up its QT effort, purging its Balance Sheet of $40 billion of Treasuries this week, the most since it reduced its Treasury holdings by $43 billion the week-ended August 16th 2023. Treasuries: The Fed’s Treasury security holdings declined by $40.0 billion for … Continue reading The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update
My, how things have changed with Apple's valuation. We compared AAPL today versus 2015 from a Revenue growth and valuation standpoint. Apple grew Revenues 33% in the June 2015 quarter (see table below for details). Today, Apple's topline is shrinking. Fed Funds was essentially at zero and the 10 year Treasury yielded half what it … Continue reading Apple: Now vs. Then
AI - what a mess. Executives and investors regularly refer to all advanced automation as "AI", regardless of whether the technology in question refers to machine learning, deep learning, neural networks, natural language processing, computer vision / image recognition, voice recognition, generative AI and so on. The good folks at Korn Ferry recently published the … Continue reading AI: The Blind Leading The Blind
Layoffs have ticked up in October as compared to September. I expect a step function up in layoffs in January 2024 as I believe that a number of CEOs, CFOs and Boards have yet to find religion around higher interest rates. We are not going back to a zero percent Fed Funds rate in Q1, … Continue reading A Modest Uptick In October Employee Layoffs. I Expect Layoffs To Spike Higher In January.
We told you that ZoomInfo (ticker: ZI) shares were overvalued in August (HERE) despite the 25% haircut the day we published. Today's 15% haircut gets ZI shares in a more rational valuation space. However, I have always questioned how ZI calculates "organic" revenue growth, particularly when it was regularly rolling in acquisitions. Now that it … Continue reading We Have Never Liked ZoomInfo (ZI)
The final numbers are in. The Federal Government posted a fiscal deficit of $1.7 trillion in fiscal year 2023 on $6.1 trillion in fiscal spending. The fiscal deficit figure is up 23% from fiscal 2022's deficit. Blame the Biden Administration and Congress for the deficits in fiscal years 2021-2023. Blame the Fed for subsidizing those … Continue reading The United States’ Spend, Print, Inflate Fiscal Policy Is Unsustainable. The Fed’s Monetary Policy Isn’t Helping.