Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Category: Economy
The capital markets are bonkers having been thrown into contortions by perverse fiscal and monetary policy. Up is down and down is up. The Capital Markets remind me of Bizarro World from the Superman comics where everything is backwards. FISCAL POLICY: One could argue that fiscal policy has been working against Americans since the days … Continue reading The Capital Markets Are Bonkers
The price increases of goods and services in 2021, 2022 and YTD combined with higher interest rates have ensured that a recession will follow. The economic damage is done. The Fed could take interest rates to zero percent tomorrow and restart QE and it would not stave off this recession. Prices for goods and services … Continue reading This Economic Recession Is Baked In
The hype around all things "AI-related" is starting to feel like the 1999 Internet Bubble. The chatter that AI is going to save the U.S. from falling into recession (I believe we are already there), is delusional. I would short that thesis all day. There simply is not enough Enterprise Customer demand for AI / … Continue reading More AI Hype – The Latest Clickbait Phenomenon
The Fed resumed QT the week ending May 31st having modestly reduced its Treasury and Government Agency security holdings (modest in comparison to the Fed's former QE buying program). Treasuries: The Fed’s Treasury security holdings decreased by $31.1 billion for the week-ended May 31st and decreased by $59.9 billion on a rolling 4-week basis. Agencies: The Fed’s … Continue reading The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update
Our view is that M&A activity will further slow from here (especially within Tech), given that valuations have rebounded to a large degree year-to-date (Tech in particular), but sales pipelines are not any more robust than they were in Q4'22 nor Q1'23. Further, the macro economic environment is not any stronger today than it has … Continue reading We Expect Less M&A Deal Activity in 2H 2023
META's value proposition to Ad Buyers was permanently impaired by Apple’s implementation of permission-based Ad tracking which has negatively impacted META's price per ad metric for almost two years (see chart and table below). Further adding to META's Ad woes, Google will phase out third-party cookies next year and replace them with its Privacy Sandbox. … Continue reading META’s Ad Problem
We recently wrote Don’t Worry About The Debt Ceiling as a deal would inevitably get done as both sides want their pork. The spend-heavy Dems and GOP have reached a tentative debt ceiling deal. This means more fiscal spending that's not tied to production/GDP, more fiscal deficits, more debt and more inflation. The inflation tax … Continue reading Spend, Spend and More Spending
We have over 100 AI-related articles. Here are our top AI-focused articles. They cover all elements of AI including many companies that play in different corners of AI. Reach out to us with any questions at jmaietta@tek2day.com AI Is Nothing New, Yet We Are Only Scratching The Surface Build Your Own NLP Front-End AI-Powered Convenience … Continue reading All Things AI
The Fed's Treasury holdings were unchanged the week-ended May 24th 2023. Minimum QT activity combined with a substantial back door QE program via the BTFP equals QE on a net basis. Treasuries: The Fed’s Treasury security holdings were unchanged for the week-ended May 24th and decreased by $72.3 billion on a rolling 4-week basis. Agencies: The Fed’s … Continue reading The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update Premium
The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP, bail out/QE) had approximately $91.9 billion in outstanding loans as of Wednesday this week, up from $87.0 billion (+ $4.9 billion) a week ago. The “other credit extensions” line item of $192.6 billion includes the FDIC loans made to regional banks. This figure is down from $208.5 billion (- $15.9 billion) … Continue reading Weekly Update: Bank Term Funding ProgramPremium
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