Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Category: Economy
History rhymes. Today feels a lot like 2008 when many investors expected an economic rebound in the back half of 2008. When that did not happen, 2009 was to be the rebound year. 2010 then became the year when the economy would normalize after 2009 proved to be worse than 2008. 2010 presented only a … Continue reading It’s 2008 & Life’s The Same Except For My Shoes
Below is Ronald Reagan’s “War On Inflation” speech as conceived by ChatGPT. Ladies and gentlemen, my fellow Americans, It is with great pride and a deep sense of responsibility that I stand before you today to talk about one of the greatest challenges facing our nation: inflation. For too long, the American people have suffered … Continue reading Reagan’s “War On Inflation” Speech
The market has felt speculative since year-end. Increases in equity options volume supports this view. Animal spirits have not been sufficiently stomped out by the Fed. December 2022 saw 797 billion in equity options volume. That metric increased to 851 billion in January 2023 as investors juiced positions with options trades (see chart below). It … Continue reading Options Volume On The Rise
The Fed continued to tighten as it culled approximately $38 billion in Treasuries from its balance sheet, $33 billion of which consisted of T-Notes and Bonds. Treasuries: The Fed’s Treasury security holdings were $38.1 billion lower over the last week and $59.2 billion lower on a rolling 4-week total basis. Agencies: The Fed’s Government Agency security holdings … Continue reading The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update
At some point the market has got to reconcile with economic reality. META is a case in point. META's core business is selling Ads. META's price per Ad declined 16% year-over-year for calendar 2022 and declined 22% year-over-year in Q4'22 (unit pricing is likely to get worse in my view in 2023). META's Q4'22 Revenue … Continue reading META and The Market
The Fed will likely hike by 25 BPS today (although we hope for 50 BPS). On the subject of a Fed pivot, market commentators seemingly always neglect to mention the QT component. QT is a more powerful monetary policy tool than is the Fed Funds rate in our view. Banks can't lend a Dollar that … Continue reading A Full Fed Pivot
Analysts estimate that META will grow revenues in 2023 over 2022. However, the estimates I see imply that revenue growth will be back-end loaded. We know how that usually ends. I see META struggling to generate year-over-year Revenue growth and expect for 2023 to be a down Revenue year. Zuckerberg is not an Operator. META's … Continue reading META: Where Will Growth Come From?
The sooner the Fed gets to where it is going, the sooner it may pause and observe. In addition, Treasury yields remain negative across the yield curve which is not long-term healthy for the economy. The Effective Fed Funds rate range stands at 4.25-4.50%. If the Fed believes that the upper bound should sit at … Continue reading Why The Fed Should Hike By 50 BPS
The Fed's tightening game is more than a one-trick pony. Quantitative Tightening ("QT"), is equally if not more important to monetary policy than the Fed Funds Rate. The Money Supply & QT. The Fed reduces the size of its balance sheet by selling holdings or allowing holdings to mature. Both methods result in money being … Continue reading The Money Supply & QT
The Fed's Treasury position was essentially unchanged for the week-ended January 25th while the Fed's Government agency/Mortgage-backed securities position was $15.2 billion lower over the last week. The housing market remains inflated in our view due the Fed's ZIRP policy in 2020 and 2021. Many suburban housing markets that saw residential properties trade at $200/SQFT … Continue reading The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update
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