Category: Economy

Multiple Fiscal Stimulus Rounds Are Coming. Good News for Equities. Bad News for The Real Economy.

Multiple Fiscal Stimulus Rounds Are Coming. Good News for Equities. Bad News for The Real Economy.

We believe there will be multiple fiscal stimulus rounds. When one considers the stalled economy, negligible Real GDP growth and high unemployment, it would seem that this $2 Trillion stimulus round under discussion won't be sufficient to satisfy the narrative that Government needs to do more. When one factors in runaway entitlements (table below), it … Continue reading Multiple Fiscal Stimulus Rounds Are Coming. Good News for Equities. Bad News for The Real Economy.

Cryptocurrency Is Starting To Gain Recognition As A Store of Value

Cryptocurrency Is Starting To Gain Recognition As A Store of Value

This trend has accelerated since the Federal Reserve embarked on its money printing spree earlier this year. Using Bitcoin as a proxy, it is clear that cryptocurrencies have evolved beyond speculative investment status to become a store of value. There are a fixed number of Bitcoins that may be mined (21 million) which checks one … Continue reading Cryptocurrency Is Starting To Gain Recognition As A Store of Value

COVID’s Lasting Impact On Mobility

COVID’s Lasting Impact On Mobility

The punchline is that COVID-19 has had a dramatic and lasting negative impact on public transportation as measured by our analysis of Apple Maps data. Below we provide examples of some of America's largest cities and the trends around driving, walking and public transportation. It's probably not a good idea to go long muni bonds. … Continue reading COVID’s Lasting Impact On Mobility

Fraud – A Sign of The Times

Fraud – A Sign of The Times

Fraud always spikes during frothy markets. If it feels like we are beating you over the head as it relates to Quality CEOs and CEO Integrity it is because we are. High Quality, High Integrity CEOs are the best preventive measure against getting burned by fraudulent companies. 2020 has delivered massive equity market valuation froth … Continue reading Fraud – A Sign of The Times

Muted GDP Will Force Investors to Become More Selective

Muted GDP Will Force Investors to Become More Selective

"There is nothing more permanent than a temporary government program" - Milton Friedman. First is was the financial crisis of 2008 that "forced" the Fed to perform unnatural acts. It was at this time that the Fed introduced Quantitative Easing ("QE"). QE was to be a "one-and-done" program. That program remains part of the Fed's … Continue reading Muted GDP Will Force Investors to Become More Selective

Poor Executive Management Must Be Held Accountable

Poor Executive Management Must Be Held Accountable

The airlines knowingly placed themselves between a rock and a hard place when they decided to gorge on cheap debt for the purpose of funding share buyback plans designed to boost executive compensation. The lack of financial wiggle room is of their own doing. It's time for the airlines to restructure, to shrink capacity to … Continue reading Poor Executive Management Must Be Held Accountable

A Nation in Decline: Total Federal Debt Is 136% of GDP

A Nation in Decline: Total Federal Debt Is 136% of GDP

U.S. policymakers have increasingly utilized debt to fund various spending initiatives without a thought as to the consequences (reminiscent of the last days of the Roman Empire). U.S. reserve currency status and endless monetary expansion have supported this debt addiction. At this rate U.S. reserve currency status is in jeopardy. The chart below depicts total … Continue reading A Nation in Decline: Total Federal Debt Is 136% of GDP

U.S. Debt to Reach 195% of GDP by 2050

U.S. Debt to Reach 195% of GDP by 2050

Icarus flew too close to the sun and the United States' fascination with debt may prove to be equally destructive. Yesterday the CBO published its long-term Debt-to-GDP estimates. Those figures show U.S. debt steadily increasing as a percentage of GDP ramping-up to 195% of GDP by 2050. If debt-funded stimulus, zero interest rates and expansionary … Continue reading U.S. Debt to Reach 195% of GDP by 2050

China Is Not Bullish On The U.S. Economy

China Is Not Bullish On The U.S. Economy

Mainland China is not bullish on the U.S. Economy. China's U.S. Treasury holdings have generally declined since 2013 from a peak of approximately $1.32 Trillion (Nov-2013) to $1.07 Trillion as of Jul-2020. Charts and graphs are at the article's end Both the U.S. and China have interventionist fiscal and monetary policy. The difference is that … Continue reading China Is Not Bullish On The U.S. Economy