Category: Economy

It’s 2008 & Life’s The Same Except For My Shoes

It’s 2008 & Life’s The Same Except For My Shoes

History rhymes. Today feels a lot like 2008 when many investors expected an economic rebound in the back half of 2008. When that did not happen, 2009 was to be the rebound year. 2010 then became the year when the economy would normalize after 2009 proved to be worse than 2008. 2010 presented only a … Continue reading It’s 2008 & Life’s The Same Except For My Shoes

Reagan’s “War On Inflation” Speech

Reagan’s “War On Inflation” Speech

Below is Ronald Reagan’s “War On Inflation” speech as conceived by ChatGPT. Ladies and gentlemen, my fellow Americans, It is with great pride and a deep sense of responsibility that I stand before you today to talk about one of the greatest challenges facing our nation: inflation. For too long, the American people have suffered … Continue reading Reagan’s “War On Inflation” Speech

The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update

The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update

The Fed continued to tighten as it culled approximately $38 billion in Treasuries from its balance sheet, $33 billion of which consisted of T-Notes and Bonds. Treasuries: The Fed’s Treasury security holdings were $38.1 billion lower over the last week and $59.2 billion lower on a rolling 4-week total basis. Agencies: The Fed’s Government Agency security holdings … Continue reading The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update

META: Where Will Growth Come From?

META: Where Will Growth Come From?

Analysts estimate that META will grow revenues in 2023 over 2022. However, the estimates I see imply that revenue growth will be back-end loaded. We know how that usually ends. I see META struggling to generate year-over-year Revenue growth and expect for 2023 to be a down Revenue year. Zuckerberg is not an Operator. META's … Continue reading META: Where Will Growth Come From?

Why The Fed Should Hike By 50 BPS

Why The Fed Should Hike By 50 BPS

The sooner the Fed gets to where it is going, the sooner it may pause and observe. In addition, Treasury yields remain negative across the yield curve which is not long-term healthy for the economy. The Effective Fed Funds rate range stands at 4.25-4.50%. If the Fed believes that the upper bound should sit at … Continue reading Why The Fed Should Hike By 50 BPS

The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update

The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update

The Fed's Treasury position was essentially unchanged for the week-ended January 25th while the Fed's Government agency/Mortgage-backed securities position was $15.2 billion lower over the last week. The housing market remains inflated in our view due the Fed's ZIRP policy in 2020 and 2021. Many suburban housing markets that saw residential properties trade at $200/SQFT … Continue reading The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update