Category: Economy

Muted Real GDP Provides The Fed With Excuse Not To Taper. Stick To Quality.

Muted Real GDP Provides The Fed With Excuse Not To Taper. Stick To Quality.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of 3.6% real GDP for Q3, down from 3.7% a week earlier provides the Fed with the narrative necessary to not taper MBS asset purchases (currently approximately $40 billion per month), nor Treasury purchases (approximately $80 billion per month). Investors ought to stick to quality names. In the face of … Continue reading Muted Real GDP Provides The Fed With Excuse Not To Taper. Stick To Quality.

TEK2day Podcast Ep. 441: Insurers & Alternative Asset Investing with SS&C Technologies

TEK2day Podcast Ep. 441: Insurers & Alternative Asset Investing with SS&C Technologies

We published our TEK2day Spotlight report - The Evolving Insurance Industry - a few weeks ago. We hosted a follow-up podcast episode with two of the SS&C Technologies (ticker: SSNC), executives that were involved with that effort. You may view the video podcast at the YouTube link below. If any difficulties, simply visit CEORater's YouTube … Continue reading TEK2day Podcast Ep. 441: Insurers & Alternative Asset Investing with SS&C Technologies

Fed Officials Trading Behavior Is Disappointing, Not Surprising

Fed Officials Trading Behavior Is Disappointing, Not Surprising

One would think Fed officials would have the common sense to not trade in stocks at a time when the Fed's heavy hand dominates the capital markets. Fundamentals have mattered little since April 2020 as a result of the Fed's ultra-dovish monetary policy. Yet as reported by the Wall Street Journal certain Fed officials engaged … Continue reading Fed Officials Trading Behavior Is Disappointing, Not Surprising

Interest Rates Follow Real GDP

Interest Rates Follow Real GDP

Interest rates have historically followed Real GDP. The below graph plots the 10-year Treasury at constant maturity vs. the year-over-year change in Real GDP as measured each quarter. It will be interesting for markets ("interesting" meaning "disruptive"), should the Fed tighten in what is now a slowing economy in Real GDP terms. Reach us at … Continue reading Interest Rates Follow Real GDP

Runaway Fiscal Spending Threatens Markets and The U.S. Economy

Runaway Fiscal Spending Threatens Markets and The U.S. Economy

Runaway fiscal spending threatens markets and the U.S. Economy. Investors hunt for real returns. Fiscal spending drives monetary policy (the Fed is after all an appendage of the Treasury), and the Fed's ultra-loose monetary policy is the culprit behind persistent price inflation. Price inflation is the pin that will prick the various bubbles across markets. … Continue reading Runaway Fiscal Spending Threatens Markets and The U.S. Economy

It Is Beginning To Look Like Stagflation

It Is Beginning To Look Like Stagflation

The Atlanta Fed's real GDP estimate of 3.7% is well below inflation as measured by the Fed (CPI of 5.4%) and well below any real world price inflation measure. We do not subscribe to the Fed's theory that price inflation is transitory. Our view is that price inflation will grow from here. If real GDP … Continue reading It Is Beginning To Look Like Stagflation

Treasury Tapering Is Not Around The Corner

Treasury Tapering Is Not Around The Corner

It will be a few more months before the Federal Reserve slows the pace of Treasury purchases. Mortgage-backed securities are another ball of wax. However, insofar as Treasuries are concerned, tapering is not in the Fed's immediate future. Why? Our rationale is that if Congress is wrestling over a $3.5 Trillion spending bill (healthcare, climate … Continue reading Treasury Tapering Is Not Around The Corner

Leveraging The Fed’s Digital Dollar

Leveraging The Fed’s Digital Dollar

The Fed's digital U.S. Dollar will happen. The question is which FinTech firms and traditional Financial Institutions will best leverage it. The Fed will quickly become a FinTech firm and Consumer Depository Institution of primary importance once it goes live with its digital U.S. Dollar. A whole new slate of FinTech firms will rise, building … Continue reading Leveraging The Fed’s Digital Dollar

Our View On Fed Tightening and M&A

Our View On Fed Tightening and M&A

Our view is that the Fed will only truly pursue an extended tightening course (full wind down of QE followed by rate hikes), if price inflation continues to where the Biden Administration feels it will cost the Democrat Party in the 2022 mid-term elections and/or hurt Biden's chances for re-election in 2024. The Fed is … Continue reading Our View On Fed Tightening and M&A

Google To Dissolve Google Health

Google To Dissolve Google Health

Google Health's CEO is to become Cerner's CEO. Google will allocate its Health projects to different parts of the organization. This wreaks of government interference. Cerner and Epic are two prime examples of large, established Healthcare IT players that should have been acquired by some combination of Amazon, Apple, Google or Microsoft by now. The … Continue reading Google To Dissolve Google Health