Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Category: Economy
We compared the year-over-year percentage change in M2 (measured each month) to the year-over-year percentage change in the NASDAQ Composite (measured each month on a one-month lag) and found a strong correlation as measured by a correlation coefficient of 81.7%. Our analysis covered the percentage change in M2 from April 2020 (when the money supply … Continue reading Strong Correlation Between M2 Growth & NASDAQ Composite Growth
Cash flow is king in a world smitten by nosebleed valuations and unsustainable spending The Fed's commentary around potentially increasing the Fed Funds Rate in 2023 vs. 2024 reminds me of the equity analyst who would base his valuation case on a P/E multiple applied to an earnings estimate that was five years in the … Continue reading Cash Flow Is King In A Bubble Economy
A byproduct of the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (“PEUC”) program is the job interview "no show", which has become all too common across the Retail sector. The "no show" is where a job candidate skips the job interview because the candidate never intended to obtain a job. Rather, the candidate simply needed to show proof … Continue reading The Job Interview “No Show”
One of the great distortions caused by the joint fiscal and monetary policy of 2020 and 2021 is that equities and the lowest-rated non-investment grade credits are two of the all too rare places where investors may earn a return. Savers and Fixed Income investors be damned. Many companies are enjoying their stocks trading at … Continue reading Investors Should Ask More of Their Management Teams
Powell's Fed will continue to run its ultra-loose monetary policy for as long as possible in an effort to inflate the debt away. On Wednesday Powell will say more time is needed for the economy to recover before the Fed considers tightening interest rates. Powell will talk of transitory inflation. Powell will quote May's poor … Continue reading The Fed Won’t Change Its Position On Wednesday
One of the big macro themes that I am long-term bullish on is availability of clean drinking water, especially as the global population continues to grow. Water technology companies that have the ability to treat and deliver water at the local level become increasingly strategic and valuable when one considers global population growth (Africa, India … Continue reading Food for Thought: WaterTech
More bogus CPI numbers reported yesterday (HERE). The CPI itself is a poor price inflation measure given it excludes so many asset classes such as equities, art and crypto. Let's focus on one CPI line item - "food at home" which was up 0.7% over the past 12 months ended May. Sorry, that's a bogus … Continue reading Inflating The Debt Away. Higher Prices Are Here To Stay.
Google is using Machine Learning to design the layout of its next-gen TPU chips. Learn more HERE.Speaking of AI and ML, SS&C Technologies (SSNC) achieved a milestone with its relatively new AI-powered Singularity platform this week. Singularity now boasts more than 50 clients. Read the release HERE. A behavioral change is required to fight cyberattacks. … Continue reading AI, ML, Autos, CEOs and Inflation
The punchline is that a significant percentage of new money creation over the past year was allocated to non-productive use cases. "Helicopter" money to individuals and non-performing firms are two examples. When capital is deployed for non-productive use (acquiring cryptocurrencies for example), that capital invariably bids up prices causing asset price inflation. Conversely, recipients that … Continue reading Rewarding Non-Productive Activities with New Money Leads to Price Inflation
A one-size fits all approach to WFH policies will not work. CEOs and Executive Management teams must shape WFH policy based on corporate culture. Some companies such as Automattic (WordPress owner) have operated in a 100% remote work environment since their founding (Automattic founded in 2005). Other companies perform better when employees share a physical … Continue reading Work From Home Policy Is A Question of Company Culture
