It is best for companies to be conservative with their Q4 and 2023 outlook on EPS calls. We are 1/6 through Q4 and Technology companies have to be seeing weaker demand today versus 3 and 6 months ago. Enterprise Technology companies are likely seeing deals of all sizes get pushed back in the pipeline - … Continue reading It Is Best For Companies To Be Conservative On Q3 EPS Calls
Price inflation is no great mystery. It's a function of Money Supply growth that is not tied to Productivity. The remedy is simple: The U.S. must spend less and produce more. Government spending was $6.8 Trillion in 2021, $4.5 Trillion of which (66% of total spending, 19% of GDP) went to Entitlements. The U.S. ran … Continue reading Inflation: Why We Have It & How To Fix It.
The Bank of England will likely institute an emergency rate hike of 25-50 BPS today in our opinion as the Pound plummets against the USD (FX Headwinds Will Persist Into 2023). What is fascinating is that the fiscal side loosened policy last week as U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss pushed tax cuts. Conversely, the monetary … Continue reading The U.K. Is Not In An Enviable Position
Amazon (ticker: AMZN), has become more aggressive on the M&A front under new CEO Andy Jassy. We have seen this across the Entertainment, Health and Robotics sectors - each highly strategic in our view. Entertainment: Amazon recently closed its acquisition of MGM for $8.5 billion. The MGM acquisition onboards the James Bond franchise - a … Continue reading Amazon Ups Its M&A Effort
What is the logic to suggest that a "short & shallow" recession is likely? Isn't it more likely things will get worse before they get better? The U.S., Europe and China are experiencing economic slowdowns. The U.S. is in a recession if you believe the Atlanta Fed (GDPNow for Q2 2022 is -1.6%. See GDPNow … Continue reading A Short & Shallow Recession?
Amazon (ticker: AMZN), announced that it plans to acquire healthcare provider One Medical (ticker: ONEM), for approximately $3.9 billion. Some of the analysis we have seen misses the big picture. One Medical has approximately 180 clinics: Amazon could incorporate additional clinics into its Whole Foods and Amazon Fresh locations, thereby growing the number of consumer … Continue reading Amazon’s One Medical Acquisition – Analysts Are Missing The Boat
We believe that July's headline CPI number will decline sequentially from June's 9.1% print given that the price of oil has fallen back. However, we expect CPI excluding Energy to increase sequentially driven by food and shelter. It would be a mistake for the Fed to only move by 75 bps during the July 26-27 … Continue reading What’s Next For Short-Term Inflation?
Meta Platforms (META) will not single-handedly build the metaverse, nor will Microsoft (MSFT), nor Apple (AAPL), nor Autodesk (ADSK), nor Amazon (AMZN)... We think of the metaverse as a series of interconnected digital worlds where people engage in recreational and commercial activity. Everything from gaming to purchasing a house to leasing commercial space, to buying … Continue reading One Company Won’t Build The Metaverse
Our criticism of Apple (AAPL) and its CEO Tim Cook typically focuses on the fact that Apple does not move swiftly enough as it relates to new market opportunities. Financial Services and Healthcare are two such examples. Back in 2018 we wrote a well-received article entitled Apple Is Well-Positioned to Lead A Consumer-Driven Healthcare Revolution. … Continue reading Apple Health – What’s The Holdup?
Here is our follow-up to our recent article Facebook Will Be Next. We have stated on a number of occasions that social media companies such as Meta/Facebook and Twitter overstate the number of active users given that the active user metric is a self-reported figure and given that no outside firm has the ability to … Continue reading Facebook and The Blockchain