Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Category: Information Services
The public will see a demo version of Google's conversational AI platform - LaMDA - this year. My view is that Google LaMDA ("Language Model for Dialogue Applications"), will blow OpenAI's ChatGPT out of the water. Google is the AI King. The company indexes more content and invests more capital in Advanced AI than any … Continue reading Google LaMDA: Step Aside ChatGPT
Coinbase up 12% because the company is cutting staff? They can't cut quick enough as crypto trading falls off. ChatGPT at 145x revenue? There are plenty of Technology companies that continue to trade at 20x revenue. Despite the pronounced pullback in Tech valuations over the course of 2022, there is further room for valuations to … Continue reading Rates Going Higher. Equities Going Lower.
We recently wrote that there were more Tech-related layoffs in Q4 2022 than during the COVID trough in Q2 2020. Approximately 23% more Tech-related layoffs (73,899) occurred during Q4 2022 versus the COVID trough (60,141), in Q2 2020. There is plenty more room to cut. One thing is for sure - there is more room … Continue reading Was Q4 The Bottom For Tech Layoffs?
Yours truly received some pushback end of last year when I said that higher interest rates and a slowing economy would slow the pace of Tech M&A activity. The number of Tech M&A deals in November was down more than 47% year-over-year. Tech M&A volume has experienced double-digit percentage, year-over-year declines since February of this … Continue reading M&A Activity Continues To Slide
There was essentially no movement on the Fed's Balance Sheet this week with only very minor changes. Total Treasury and Agency security holdings were reduced by $1.9 billion for the week-ended December 7th 2022. Fed Balance Sheet – Treasuries: The Fed’s Treasury security holdings were $1.9 billion lower over the last week and $61.9 billion lower … Continue reading The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update
Pinterest (PINS) has a problem: Google (GOOGL) is better at idea generation. A search conducted on Google's main page, on Google Images or on YouTube yields better results (my opinion) than does Pinterest. In addition, Google does not require that I set-up an account to perform those basic search functions. Google will always have better … Continue reading Pinterest Has A Problem: Google
More Technology-related layoffs have occured in Q4 2022 than at the COVID economic trough in Q2 2020 (51,048 employees in the month of November 2022). Technology layoffs continue to mount as: interest rates climb; inflation remains elevated; global demand sputters and; as macro-economic uncertainty remains high. Check out Layoffs.fyi (created by Roger Lee), to track … Continue reading Technology Layoffs Continue To Climb
It is outrageous that online tax preparation services have been sending personally identifiable information (PII data), to Meta Platforms (ticker: META). PII data such as Full Name and Gross Income is being shared without consent. To not disclose this fact to customers is criminal in our view. If META wants this PII data, it should … Continue reading META, Taxes & Intuit
When it comes to Technology companies, headcount reductions are rarely "one & done". This used to be especially true of Bay Area Technology companies which are famous for lacking operating discipline (i.e. cost discipline). However, the Bay Area aversion to running profitable businesses has permeated the Tech sector over the past 12 years of easy … Continue reading Tech Company Layoffs Are Rarely “One & Done”
Office vacancy rates have not recovered to pre-COVID levels and will likely go much higher as job losses mount and as companies work to reduce expenses. San Francisco and New York City have seen vacancy rates spike over the Q1 2020 - Q3 2022 period (see first table below), while many major metro areas have … Continue reading Office Vacancy Rates Are Going Higher
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