Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Category: Investing
From instant trade settlement, to real-time AML transparency and reporting, the Fed's CBDC / "Digital Dollar" will drive efficiency, enhance transparency and reduce privacy. "We are the Federal Reserve and we are here to help" (translation: run for cover). The Federal Reserve will have rolled out its CBDC - the Digital Dollar - by 2025 … Continue reading The Fed’s Digital Dollar Will Remake The Capital Markets
The CPI data category "Owners' Equivalent Rent" ("OER"), uses data derived from surveys of homeowners in select markets rather than real world data. This technique allows the BLS and the Federal Reserve to understate price inflation. OER understates CPI by 1% or more. September's 5.4% CPI increase was understated by at least 1% per our … Continue reading How The CPI’s Fuzzy Math Understates Inflation
We expect that Claims Processing technology providers will merge with one another (P&C with Health & Life) as well as with Policy Administration technology providers to better serve insurance company customers as insurance M&A continues its rapid pace (See the Chubb / Cigna A&H deal HERE). One hypothetical M&A example would be Solera (P&C) merging … Continue reading Insurance M&A Will Drive InsurTech M&A
As AWS, Azure and Google Cloud compete to win the hearts of Government officials, acquiring a top-tier defense contractor would do much to gain the inside track on strategic, DoD/DHS/Govt. mega-contracts. Amazon's Arlington VA campus suggests it views the D.C./Northern VA area as more long-term strategic than does Microsoft or Google (the latter tends to … Continue reading Tech Prediction of the Week: Amazon Will Acquire Lockheed Martin
We highlight some of the bubbles (some call it the "Everything Bubble"), caused by the ultra-loose fiscal and monetary policies that have distorted markets since April 2020. The longer Powell & Company wait to taper and eventually raise interest rates, the more difficult it will be to reel in the price inflation caused by the … Continue reading More Than Tiny Bubbles: Policy-Driven Market Distortions
Economists pushing the narrative that Real GDP growth will climb back to mid-single-digit percentages in 2022 have got it wrong. The combination of persistent price inflation and weak labor participation will ensure that Real GDP remains range bound between zero and 2%. The sooner Wall Street pundits learn to say "Stagflation" the more honest conversation … Continue reading Real GDP Growth Will Not Rebound In 2022
Insurance company CIOs continue to use Alternative Assets to increase yield in this ultra-low interest rate environment. KKR Asset Management's Insurance CIO survey found similar results (chart below) to our recent TEK2day Spotlight report on the insurance industry which may be accessed HERE. We expect that the heavy use of Alternative Assets in the pursuit … Continue reading Leveraging Alternative Assets To Increase Yield
If you have spent time on social media platforms or cover the space you are aware of the toxic environment that social media platforms can create via algorithms designed to stir emotions and create conflict between users, thereby boosting user engagement and enabling the platforms to command higher ad rates. Recently the Wall Street Journal … Continue reading Facebook’s Toxicity
The Fed's "Fed Funds Rate" forecast for the next several years is not realistic. Our view is that the Fed will move to raise its Fed Funds Rate more quickly than its published forecast (see page 2 of 17). The Fed anticipates median Fed Funds Rates of 0.3%, 1.0% and 1.8% in 2022, 2023 and … Continue reading Fed Funds Rate Will Increase Faster Than Fed’s Forecast
Fed Chair Powell's statement to be made Tuesday at 10:00am ET to the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs acknowledges that inflation may not be as "transitory" as the Fed initially thought. Powell's statement to the committee is below. Powell knew this would be the case months ago but the Fed will never admit … Continue reading Powell Acknowledges Inflation Could Persist Longer Than Anticipated
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