Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Category: Investment Banks
We plan to publish content on companies we believe are fraudulent. We will focus on small-cap companies as it is easier to move the needle there versus mid-cap and large-cap companies. Case in point, when we did work on Cintas (CTAS) in 2017 nobody seemed to care that Cintas regularly overbilled customers to goose reported … Continue reading Corporate Fraud
Analysts estimate that META will grow revenues in 2023 over 2022. However, the estimates I see imply that revenue growth will be back-end loaded. We know how that usually ends. I see META struggling to generate year-over-year Revenue growth and expect for 2023 to be a down Revenue year. Zuckerberg is not an Operator. META's … Continue reading META: Where Will Growth Come From?
The sooner the Fed gets to where it is going, the sooner it may pause and observe. In addition, Treasury yields remain negative across the yield curve which is not long-term healthy for the economy. The Effective Fed Funds rate range stands at 4.25-4.50%. If the Fed believes that the upper bound should sit at … Continue reading Why The Fed Should Hike By 50 BPS
I don't buy the idea that anyone other than Comcast (CMCSA) will acquire WWE (WWE). As I previously wrote, Comcast partners with WWE, knows the brand, features WWE content on its Peacock streaming service, did months of heavy lifting to port WWE Network content to it's Peacock platform and has built relationships with WWE executives. … Continue reading WWE Is Comcast’s To Lose
Get ready to hear the word "cautious" repeated ad nauseam on forthcoming Technology company EPS calls this month and next. Temenos (tkr: TEMN), is one such example. You may read the FinTech company's Q4 press release here: https://www.temenos.com/news/2023/01/16/temenos-pre-announces-preliminary-q4-and-fy-2022-results-bxf9181m/ Temenos also announced a CEO change. I expect to see more CEO changes than normal in 2023. … Continue reading Q4’22 EPS Call Buzzword: “Cautious”
Past recessions have taught us that leading Technology companies typically gain marketshare during down economies. I would expect this economic down period to be no different. Good news for Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and others. Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT): Amazon's AWS unit and Microsoft's Azure unit will be mixed bags: Usage: Usage - and … Continue reading Technology Leaders Will Gain Share
We recently wrote that there were more Tech-related layoffs in Q4 2022 than during the COVID trough in Q2 2020. Approximately 23% more Tech-related layoffs (73,899) occurred during Q4 2022 versus the COVID trough (60,141), in Q2 2020. There is plenty more room to cut. One thing is for sure - there is more room … Continue reading Was Q4 The Bottom For Tech Layoffs?
Yours truly received some pushback end of last year when I said that higher interest rates and a slowing economy would slow the pace of Tech M&A activity. The number of Tech M&A deals in November was down more than 47% year-over-year. Tech M&A volume has experienced double-digit percentage, year-over-year declines since February of this … Continue reading M&A Activity Continues To Slide
2023 is shaping up to be a tough year for the CRE and Housing markets as interest rates remain elevated. When I think of the pension funds that own CMBS debt I shudder. Pension funds that invested in alternative asset classes over the past 20 years will have to mark down their books for the … Continue reading 2023 Won’t Be Pretty For CRE & Housing
Central Bank excess breeds undue risk. The negative real interest rate environment over the last decade-plus has caused Pension Funds and other non-bank institutions to take on undue risk in the pursuit of yield (we wrote about this topic at length last year). Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards held by non-bank institutions is … Continue reading $80 Trillion In Off-Balance Sheet Debt
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