The price increases of goods and services in 2021, 2022 and YTD combined with higher interest rates have ensured that a recession will follow. The economic damage is done. The Fed could take interest rates to zero percent tomorrow and restart QE and it would not stave off this recession. Prices for goods and services … Continue reading This Economic Recession Is Baked In
Category: Mergers and Acquisitions
We Expect Less M&A Deal Activity in 2H 2023
Our view is that M&A activity will further slow from here (especially within Tech), given that valuations have rebounded to a large degree year-to-date (Tech in particular), but sales pipelines are not any more robust than they were in Q4'22 nor Q1'23. Further, the macro economic environment is not any stronger today than it has … Continue reading We Expect Less M&A Deal Activity in 2H 2023
How Much of That Share Repurchase Authorization Will Be Executed?
The WSJ reports that companies have announced $600 billion of share repurchase authorizations year-to-date. What percentage of that total authorization will be executed? The proof is in the pudding as they say and a share repurchase press release means zero until the company in question starts to execute on the authorization. Announcing share repurchase authorizations … Continue reading How Much of That Share Repurchase Authorization Will Be Executed?
Disney Should Acquire Warner Bros. Discovery
Disney (DIS) needs additional hit content for its Disney+ streaming platform. The streaming game is a scale game. Production houses that own their own streaming platform (Netflix, Disney, Comcast, Warner Bros. Discovery), need to ensure they have sufficient "hit" content to drive profitable streaming operations. Ideally those content producers want to achieve streaming profitability primarily … Continue reading Disney Should Acquire Warner Bros. Discovery
Communicating with Investors: A CEO Handbook
Below is the high-level outline for our next book to be published as an Amazon Kindle book later this summer. The book will be focused on CEO communications with public company investors. I. Define Your Company What We Do & How We Do It How We Create Customer Value How We Create A Sustainable Competitive … Continue reading Communicating with Investors: A CEO Handbook
How Much Resolve Does Jay Powell Have?
A Fed pivot to lower rates would end the banking crisis and likely reignite inflation. What will Fed Chair Jay Powell do? The shorts are correct. You shouldn't believe Jamie Dimon and Jay Powell. Jamie lied earlier this week when he talked about "this part of the banking crisis is over." No, as we said … Continue reading How Much Resolve Does Jay Powell Have?
Microsoft: Too Big To Be Accountable?
It feels as though Microsoft (MSFT) and perhaps the largest Tech companies are too big to be held accountable. While I much prefer MSFT CEO Satya Nadella to former CEO Steve Ballmer, nowhere on MSFT's recent EPS call was there a single question about organic revenue growth. Acquisitions likely accounted for at least one percentage … Continue reading Microsoft: Too Big To Be Accountable?
The U.K. Blocking MSFT’s Proposed Activision Deal
Whether it is the FTC or Britain's Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), I believe these Government agencies often block proposed mergers and acquisitions simply to justify their existence. They are government agencies after all and require taxpayer funds (or printed money) to survive. The CMA's MSFT decision adds zero value, will hinder innovation, and demonstrates … Continue reading The U.K. Blocking MSFT’s Proposed Activision Deal
The Full Promise of Large Language Models
The full promise of Large Language Models (LLMs) won't be delivered until LLMs are capable of understanding nuanced industry specific commercial data. Until such time, LLMs will be productivity enhancers (think Google Assistant), capable of automating routine tasks but incapable of operating complex processes. In order for the above to happen, LLMs will need to … Continue reading The Full Promise of Large Language Models
The Best CEOs
The best CEOs drive the business during economic downturns as well as during good times. Having operating targets large and small across all facets of the operation supported by incentive-based compensation systems greatly increases the probability of driving superior operating performance. The best CEOs define a mother mission. It is ideal if the mission is … Continue reading The Best CEOs
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