Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Category: Social Media
META shares are rich, especially when one considers the prospect of anemic revenue growth. Where will META's future operating leverage come from? This is supposedly META's cost-cutting year (although I believe they have more fat to cut). If 2023 is in fact META's cost cutting year, that implies that future operating leverage will primarily come … Continue reading META Shares Are Rich
The price increases of goods and services in 2021, 2022 and YTD combined with higher interest rates have ensured that a recession will follow. The economic damage is done. The Fed could take interest rates to zero percent tomorrow and restart QE and it would not stave off this recession. Prices for goods and services … Continue reading This Economic Recession Is Baked In
Our view is that M&A activity will further slow from here (especially within Tech), given that valuations have rebounded to a large degree year-to-date (Tech in particular), but sales pipelines are not any more robust than they were in Q4'22 nor Q1'23. Further, the macro economic environment is not any stronger today than it has … Continue reading We Expect Less M&A Deal Activity in 2H 2023
META's value proposition to Ad Buyers was permanently impaired by Apple’s implementation of permission-based Ad tracking which has negatively impacted META's price per ad metric for almost two years (see chart and table below). Further adding to META's Ad woes, Google will phase out third-party cookies next year and replace them with its Privacy Sandbox. … Continue reading META’s Ad Problem
We recently wrote Don’t Worry About The Debt Ceiling as a deal would inevitably get done as both sides want their pork. The spend-heavy Dems and GOP have reached a tentative debt ceiling deal. This means more fiscal spending that's not tied to production/GDP, more fiscal deficits, more debt and more inflation. The inflation tax … Continue reading Spend, Spend and More Spending
AI is nothing new, yet we are only scratching the surface. I believe that every Technology company is incorporating broadly-defined "AI" into their products and services offerings at this juncture. "AI" at its core is based upon statistical models that underpin various advanced automation processes such as machine learning, deep learning, neural networks, natural language … Continue reading AI Is Nothing New, Yet We Are Only Scratching The Surface
The cynic in me has never believed that Meta has been honest about the number of active users on its platform, daily usage, user engagement, etc. First, I've previously quoted the Pew Research survey below (first chart). My personal experience with young people in my family reflects the Pew survey data represented in the chart … Continue reading Meta’s Deepfake
Below is the high-level outline for our next book to be published as an Amazon Kindle book later this summer. The book will be focused on CEO communications with public company investors. I. Define Your Company What We Do & How We Do It How We Create Customer Value How We Create A Sustainable Competitive … Continue reading Communicating with Investors: A CEO Handbook
I'm fully aware that Ad Revenue (Ad-related Revenue accounted for 78% of Google's total revenue in the March quarter) does not command the same multiple as subscription revenue, but should Microsoft command 2x GOOGL's valuation on an EV/Revenue and EV/ Cash from Operations basis? It would seem that GOOGL's valuation discount to MSFT is punitive. … Continue reading Google’s Discount To Microsoft Is Too Steep
VICE Media: from a $6 billion valuation to filing for bankruptcy. Vice Media (private), is a great example of a Zombie company that can't survive without easy monetary policy. 8-10 years ago Vice was a media darling that could do no wrong. Former Viacom COO Tom Freston viewed Vice and founder Shane Smith as the … Continue reading Watch The Zombies Fall
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