Live sports still captures the most eyeballs across traditional content categories (certain video game title releases capture more eyeballs). If Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Disney (DIS), Google (GOOGL), WarnerBrosDiscovery (WBD), Fox (FOXA), Comcast (CMCSA), Netflix (NFLX) or another large media player was to announce a deal that it was acquiring a sports franchise, I generally … Continue reading Live Sports Remains The Traditional Content King
It is outrageous that online tax preparation services have been sending personally identifiable information (PII data), to Meta Platforms (ticker: META). PII data such as Full Name and Gross Income is being shared without consent. To not disclose this fact to customers is criminal in our view. If META wants this PII data, it should … Continue reading META, Taxes & Intuit
Approximately 1.2 million residential mortgages in Great Britain are adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs). As the Bank of England (BOE), continues to move interest rates higher (3% rate today and likely moving to 3.5% on December 15th), the average ARM holder will have to absorb significantly higher monthly payments which translates to commensurately less disposable income. … Continue reading ARMs Will Drag Great Britain and The U.S.
Coinbase (COIN), is a walking bankruptcy absent an immediate, dramatic recovery in Retail customer sentiment. The probability of an imminent resurgence in Retail enthusiasm for Crypto is close to zero given 2022's various Crypto failures including the recent FTX fraud (FTX founder Sam Bankrun Fraud needs to be arrested ASAP). It hardly bodes well for … Continue reading Coinbase Is A Bankruptcy Waiting To Happen
Tiger Global paid Bain & Co. $100 million to perform due diligence, yet Bain somehow missed that FTX was a fraud. Helpful hint: check the bank statement next time. Then, work your way backwards through the cash flow chain. I can understanding hiring industry experts or functional specialists to assist with your internal investment due … Continue reading Saying “No” To Deals Avoids Blowups
The 2008 downturn and the current downcycle have similarities as far as investor sentiment is concerned. We believe that investor sentiment will sour early next year as Q4 2022 earnings reports come in. 2023 earnings estimates and stock prices will move lower off of the Q4 EPS reports. Early cycle disbelief. I recall that in … Continue reading Not So Fast. This Won’t Be Quick & Painless.
Crypto is purely a speculative vehicle with zero underlying value. Thus, why would advisors ever recommend that clients purchase crypto in their portfolios? Not Money: Crypto currency is not a store of value. Crypto currency is not a medium of exchange. Ever try buying something with Bitcoin, even at its peak? Massive haircuts at the … Continue reading Crypto Is Not Money, Nor An Asset
Why the venture community invested in kids running crypto exchanges is beyond me. If the venture firms that put money into FTX did an ounce of due diligence they would have passed on the deal. Did anyone ask to confirm bank deposits and customer reserves? Did anyone ask about customer trading records and associated reporting … Continue reading Investor Due Diligence. You Get What You Deserve.
It is no surprise that M&A deal volume has fallen to a year-to-date low (S&P M&A chart below). Given that a potentially deep recession looms in 2023, would-be acquirers no doubt are placing increased scrutiny on target company sales pipelines and profitability. Less confidence in target company Revenue, EBITDA and Cash Flow combined with a … Continue reading Media & Telco M&A Continues To Decline
When it comes to Technology companies, headcount reductions are rarely "one & done". This used to be especially true of Bay Area Technology companies which are famous for lacking operating discipline (i.e. cost discipline). However, the Bay Area aversion to running profitable businesses has permeated the Tech sector over the past 12 years of easy … Continue reading Tech Company Layoffs Are Rarely “One & Done”