Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Apple Wallet differentiates vs. other mobile wallets via its state ID and TSA efforts. Yesterday Apple announced that it is working with several states which will roll out the ability for state residents to add their driver’s license or state ID to Wallet on their iPhones and Apple Watches. With digital credit cards and the … Continue reading Apple Continues To Invest In Wallet
What could a PayPal, Interactive Brokers transaction look like? With inflated valuations all-stock deals have become more popular. A traditional, all stock acquisition of Interactive Brokers by PayPal (tkr: PYPL), certainly could happen. However, our preference would be for a "NewCo" structure whereby PayPal would own the NewCo business, or at least own a majority … Continue reading A PayPal, Interactive Brokers Transaction
Should PayPal (tkr: PYPL), want to have a retail trading product, Interactive Brokers (tkr: IBKR), is the answer. IBKR is the one retail trading platform that puts technology and user security first. In our view a "technology first" trading platform that emphasizes cybersecurity should be table stakes today but unfortunately is not so among trading … Continue reading Interactive Brokers Is The Answer To PayPal’s Retail Riddle
The Fed's digital U.S. Dollar will happen. The question is which FinTech firms and traditional Financial Institutions will best leverage it. The Fed will quickly become a FinTech firm and Consumer Depository Institution of primary importance once it goes live with its digital U.S. Dollar. A whole new slate of FinTech firms will rise, building … Continue reading Leveraging The Fed’s Digital Dollar
AWS, Azure and Google Cloud should leverage proprietary applications as a growth lever, particularly if the Federal Government forces a breakup of these cloud platforms from their respective parent companies. Oracle pioneered the strategy of extending the value of its database and infrastructure software by adding applications to its product portfolio. Oracle chose to grow … Continue reading Applications As A Growth Lever For AWS, Azure & Google Cloud
Our view is that the Fed will only truly pursue an extended tightening course (full wind down of QE followed by rate hikes), if price inflation continues to where the Biden Administration feels it will cost the Democrat Party in the 2022 mid-term elections and/or hurt Biden's chances for re-election in 2024. The Fed is … Continue reading Our View On Fed Tightening and M&A
Google Health's CEO is to become Cerner's CEO. Google will allocate its Health projects to different parts of the organization. This wreaks of government interference. Cerner and Epic are two prime examples of large, established Healthcare IT players that should have been acquired by some combination of Amazon, Apple, Google or Microsoft by now. The … Continue reading Google To Dissolve Google Health
A CEO's personality offers insights into how that CEO leads his/her company. For example, NLP techniques applied to earnings call transcripts uncover CEO personality attributes that speak to a propensity for undertaking unnecessary risk. For example, Tesla CEO Elon Musk scores low in a couple of key areas (analysis HERE), such that his "outside the … Continue reading Cult of CEO Personality
We are not buying the happy talk that investors have digested a winding down of QE and a potential Fed Funds Rate hike in late 2022 or 2023. When the Fed begins to tighten (tapering of QE followed by lifting interest rates), markets will care. It is not logical to suggest that investors have largely … Continue reading Investors Will Care Once The Fed Tightens
The Fed conveniently excludes Food and Energy price increases from its Core CPI calculation. Speaking personally, our grocery bill is up approximately one-third vs. last year. We wouldn't be surprised if many Americans were experiencing grocery price increases of 25-50% over last year. At some point Food (and Energy), price increases translate into consumers buying … Continue reading Price Inflation Caused Consumers To Shop Less, Not COVID Fears. More Automation Is Coming.
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