Technology, Capital Markets, Corporate Governance, Leadership, Entrepreneurship
Diners in some states have turned out as COVID restrictions were lifted. These states include: Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas. Access our PDF sheet HERE. Click HERE to access the Excel data. Data is organized by state and report date. https://soundcloud.com/ceorater
The depression will be deep and broad. Yes, even the beloved Enterprise Software sector will be impacted despite investors who believe the sector is impervious to negative inputs. The bullet points below are not hypothetical puts to the economy. They are real and are happening now. Banks are tightening credit. Commercial bankers are tightening now. … Continue reading The Pain Is Coming & The Recovery Will Be Uneven
Want to pick a fight with Microsoft, Amazon or Google? Don't take them head on. Build out a vertical offering that leverages bleeding edge technology combined with deep domain expertise. Control the entire user experience/customer journey. One could argue that Fanatics and Shopify (tkr: SHOP) have done just that in the world of E-commerce. SS&C … Continue reading “Verticalization” Is Where It’s At
Effective leaders whether they be hired CEOs, entrepreneurs, school teachers or physicians create opportunities through action. Elon Musk did just that this week. We don't often side with Mr. Musk but have been in lockstep with him during this COVID period. Mr. Musk, Tesla (tkr: TSLA), co-founder and CEO recently reopened Tesla's Fremont, CA manufacturing … Continue reading Leaders Create Opportunities
The Federal Reserve is crowding out private capital. It has engaged in what feels like perpetual quantitative easing ("QE") since 2008. The Fed buying corporate credit is the latest perversion from this increasingly political institution. Federal Reserve assets continue to grow pushing against the $7 Trillion mark. Fed assets could potentially cross the $10 Trillion … Continue reading The Fed Is Crowding Out Private CapitalPremium
We have charted a number of economic data sets. Each chart - some more so than others - speaks to the current weakened economy and/or illustrates the inflated equity valuations we are experiencing. The latter in our view is not related to fundamentals but to the enormous liquidity the Fed has pumped into the economy. … Continue reading TEK2day Weekend: Economic ChartsPremium
The most recent estimates by Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health predict a late May 2020 acceleration in new COVID-19 cases and deaths. The latest projections by Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health predict that new COVID-19 cases and deaths will rebound in late May (nationally), as states relax stay-at-home restrictions. The researchers … Continue reading Late May COVID-19 Ramp?
Forward PE multiples are too low. Given where the numerator is, S&P 500 forward PE multiples ought to be far higher. Earnings estimates are inflated and need to come down. The stark contrast between PE multiples during the Great Recession as compared to today's S&P 500 forward PE multiple of 22x should raise eyebrows. https://soundcloud.com/ceorater
The economy will not enjoy a "V" recovery. A combination of defaults, bankruptcies, market disruption and high unemployment will make for a gradual recovery. PPP and Fed liquidity will eventually expire. Admittedly the Fed will likely inject more capital into the economy growing its already bloated $6.6 Trillion balance sheet. At some point this all … Continue reading A “V” Recovery Is Not In the Cards
I sound like a broken record when I say for the umpteenth time "the market is going to roll over." We wrote in recent weeks the importance of being an active manager. Only active managers can navigate the choppy seas of this turbulent economy. Further, we always favor quality management teams and quality names. However, … Continue reading Quality Is King
