Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
We have long questioned the integrity of the reported user metrics disclosed by Twitter (TWTR) and Facebook (FB), as it relates to the number of fake user accounts in a given reporting period (See our recent article Elon Musk Does Perform Due Diligence). A recent Twitter study by SparkToro and Followerwonk claim that 19% of … Continue reading Facebook Will Be Next
The New York Fed released its quarterly report on Household Debt and Credit this past week. Consumer strength is waning, not gaining. Loan delinquencies and foreclosures are up across auto loans and mortgage debt which is primarily where debt expansion has occurred in prior months. There are a number of charts between pages 3-40 that … Continue reading Consumer Strength Is Waning
It appears that Elon Musk does perform due diligence. Today the market freaked out when Elon Musk essentially said his Twitter (TWTR), acquisition is on hold pending due diligence. Specifically, as common sense would suggest, Musk does not take Twitter at face value when the company says that fake accounts are less than 5% of … Continue reading Elon Musk Does Perform Due Diligence
Over the past several months we have written that the new economic normal means a target CPI in the 3-4% range and muted Real GDP in the 0-2% range. Interest rates can't go back to the Volcker days as Treasury would not be able to refinance its debt at double-digit rates. We could however see … Continue reading What Will The “New Normal” Look Like?
Inflation, interest rates and OpEx are climbing while demand softens for many companies. One glance at the table below shows that layoffs over the past two months are fairly widespread across industries. We believe that more layoffs are coming as inflation and interest rates rise. Rates will accelerate higher in June should the Fed make … Continue reading More Layoffs Are Coming
On March 31st we told investors to be prepared for weak earnings. After almost 30 years in the capital markets one lesson learned is that sellsiders are slow to publish bad news. Therefore it is not terribly difficult to predict that the sellside will lower EPS estimates for 2023 and beyond when the June and … Continue reading Earnings Estimates Will Be Revised Downward
Corporate Governance practices are flawed in our view as it relates to independent Board members. Corporate Boards are littered with outsiders who know little about the industry or the company for which they serve on the Board. My view has always been that smart investors bet on Management Teams. I would prefer a Board that … Continue reading Corporate Boards Need To Be Overhauled
Some months ago we stated that the NASDAQ Composite had 40-50% downside. On March 8th we said another 20-30% downside. This implies a NASDAQ Composite of around 9,000. Thus, we have further to fall. Interest Rates: Rates are going higher regardless of what the Fed does (other than more QE of course). Economy: There will … Continue reading NASDAQ: Further To Fall
Inflation as measured by the CPI will persist above the Fed's target rate of 2% over the long-term. Why? Because as Milton Friedman said: "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in … Continue reading CPI Will Persist Above The Fed’s Target
We do not believe that investors fully appreciate how fragile the U.S. economy is. Our view is that the U.S. economy is in a recession and that this period will be followed by long-term muted growth given: 1.) the enormous U.S. Government debt load ($30.4 trillion), 2.) persistent price inflation, 3.) a consumption-driven economy rather … Continue reading The U.S. Economy Is Long-Term Fragile
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