Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
With the Money Supply (M1) up 358% since January 2020 (as of February 2021), there is simply zero percent probability that prices are not going higher. A 3-4x increase in M1 ought to inflate prices by a similar multiple. Most of the recent $1.9 Trillion (the actual cost will be higher), COVID spending program was … Continue reading The Ugliest Chart I Have Ever Seen
It is difficult to imagine a scenario in which the U.S. economy does not experience stagflation. Record debt levels, low labor participation, muted long-term Real GDP growth, persistent inflation and the fact that the Federal Reserve is limited in its options to fight inflation leads us to believe that stagflation is imminent. Our premium TEK2day … Continue reading Stagflation Is ImminentPremium
The Federal Reserve has two primary tools that it may use to fight inflation: halting the printing press and raising interest rates. The first option is unlikely given Treasury Chief Yellen and Fed Chief Powell are operating in lock step. The Fed is limited in its use of the second option. If the Fed were … Continue reading The Fed’s Options To Fight Inflation Are Limited
Core AI services (machine learning, deep learning, NLP and more) provided by the three cloud infrastructure giants (AWS, Azure, GCP), enable technology companies of all sizes and companies in general to build powerful AI-powered applications and services that previously were the exclusive domain of large Enterprise Technology companies. That paradigm has changed forever. Today, companies … Continue reading AWS, Azure & GCP Have Democratized AI
Earlier this week Amazon (tkr: AMZN) announced that Adam Selipsky would become AWS' next CEO. Current AWS CEO Andy Jassy will become Amazon CEO later this year as founder Jeff Bezos will hold only the Executive Chairman title. Selipsky previously spent 11 years at AWS before becoming CEO of Tableau which was acquired by Salesforce … Continue reading AWS Would Do Well To Focus On The Healthcare and Government Sectors
“Given the low level of interest rates, there’s no issue about the United States being able to service its debt at this time or in the foreseeable future,” - Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Maintaining low rates to minimize debt service expense is top of mind with the Fed as we wrote last week and as … Continue reading Powell Just Told Us Why Interest Rates Will Remain Low
SPACs simply are not investor-friendly. Never mind that SPAC sponsors collect a 20% fee. Most of the 2020-2021 SPAC class consists of CEOs that are not public market-ready nor are their companies. Most SPAC companies are venture-stage companies masquerading as seasoned public companies. Many are pre-revenue or at the early stages of revenue generation (profits … Continue reading Investors Will Be Left Holding The Bag When The SPAC Party Ends
Technology CEOs who truly value innovation are scarce. It is far easier to give investors near-term profits than to reinvest a significant portion of profits in R&D activities that may not drive long-term ROIC (Yes, risk is involved which requires courage and conviction). The chip business is no exception. New Intel (tkr: INTC), CEO Pat … Continue reading Intel CEO Investing To Drive Innovation
The SEC Needs To Step Up Its Enforcement Game. Political Pressure Is Focused Elsewhere. Private, decentralized messaging platforms where user IDs are not tied to real world identities make it possible for public company executives to discretely disclose non-public information with select investors. Discord is one such example. It will be interesting to observe the … Continue reading Technology Is Running Circles Around Financial Regulators
Director & Officer ("D&O") insurance premiums spiked and coverage narrowed last year as a result of COVID-19. As vaccinations are distributed COVID-related underwriting risk will begin to soften which will be reflected in lower premiums and broader coverage. All of this is to say do not expect every mid-to-large-sized company to be fully back to … Continue reading Back To The Office Will Look Different Compared To 2019
