Sure, if Alphabet (ticker: GOOGL), were to spin off YouTube and Google Cloud it would be easier for Wall Street to value the component parts. However, I'm not sure that YouTube or Google Cloud ought to spin-off. Here's why: Google Cloud: Google Cloud consists of Google Cloud Platform (GCP is the comp to AWS and … Continue reading Spin-Off YouTube and Google Cloud?
Putting AI In Perspective
I've long argued that Google is the AI King. Here's Why. Mobile. There are only 2 mobile operating systems that matter: Android (72% share) and iOS (28%) share. Therefore, when users interact with their phones through voice, they are primarily using Google's natural language AI (Google Assistant) or Apple's natural language AI (Siri). Nowhere to … Continue reading Putting AI In Perspective
Technology Stocks Are Not Yet In The Clear
The NASDAQ Composite has had a nice little run, up more than 9% year-to-date. However, I would exercise caution ahead of Tech earnings and the Fed's January 31st / February 1st FOMC meeting. We have written on numerous occasions that we expect management teams to take a conservative approach to 2023 Revenue and EPS guidance. … Continue reading Technology Stocks Are Not Yet In The Clear
Technology Leaders Will Gain Share
Past recessions have taught us that leading Technology companies typically gain marketshare during down economies. I would expect this economic down period to be no different. Good news for Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and others. Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT): Amazon's AWS unit and Microsoft's Azure unit will be mixed bags: Usage: Usage - and … Continue reading Technology Leaders Will Gain Share
Oracle + Salesforce
I would not be surprised to see Salesforce (CRM) and Oracle (ORCL) combine in 2023 or 2024. A Salesforce, Oracle deal used to be rumored back around the time of CRM's 2004 IPO which raised $110 million. At that time Oracle Co-Founder & CEO Larry Ellison was pushing hard on building ORCL's Application layer (largely … Continue reading Oracle + Salesforce
AWS vs. Azure vs. Google Cloud
AWS is Amazon's (AMZN) most profitable business unit (26% operating margin in the September quarter), and is subsidizing other Amazon business units. While AWS allocates capital to other AMZN business units, competing cloud platforms Azure and Google Cloud are capital allocation recipients. While AWS touts its new, high-end Graviton chips - these chips will compete … Continue reading AWS vs. Azure vs. Google Cloud
AWS and Azure Headwinds
Headcount reductions and business closures will hit AWS and Azure in calendar Q4 and 2023. Every time you read about headcount reductions or a startup that failed, that is likely negative news for AWS and Azure as the two remote server platforms (particularly AWS), are leveraged to the number of users and data generated/stored by … Continue reading AWS and Azure Headwinds
Amazon Ups Its M&A Effort
Amazon (ticker: AMZN), has become more aggressive on the M&A front under new CEO Andy Jassy. We have seen this across the Entertainment, Health and Robotics sectors - each highly strategic in our view. Entertainment: Amazon recently closed its acquisition of MGM for $8.5 billion. The MGM acquisition onboards the James Bond franchise - a … Continue reading Amazon Ups Its M&A Effort
Apple + Disney
We have previously written that it would make sense for Apple (AAPL) to acquire Disney (DIS). Apple and Disney could certainly hold informal talks now, but a letter of intent, formal due diligence and the purchase agreement negotiation would all have to wait until there is a new Administration in the White House in my … Continue reading Apple + Disney
A Short & Shallow Recession?
What is the logic to suggest that a "short & shallow" recession is likely? Isn't it more likely things will get worse before they get better? The U.S., Europe and China are experiencing economic slowdowns. The U.S. is in a recession if you believe the Atlanta Fed (GDPNow for Q2 2022 is -1.6%. See GDPNow … Continue reading A Short & Shallow Recession?
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