It is starting to feel like the 1970's with out of control fiscal spending, inflation and now gas lines. We only have gas lines in certain parts of the country today as local government officials exercised gas price controls during the Colonial Pipeline shutdown. We could very well see similar price control policies from the … Continue reading More Lines To Come With Price Controls
We doubled down on our bet that Federal unemployment benefits will be extended beyond September 6th after listening to Joe Biden tell us that the sky is not blue. The longer these enhanced Federal unemployment benefits remain in force the longer the Labor Participation Rate will remain below 2019 levels. This will continue to impact … Continue reading Federal Unemployment Benefits Will Be Extended In September
The Fed likely won't taper asset purchases this calendar year. It should, but it won't. **Purchase our Amazon Kindle book Stagflation Is Imminent: HERE We previously mentioned mid-term elections as one reason why the Fed won't take away the punch bowl. Second, the Labor Participation rate - a key economic indicator for the Fed - … Continue reading The Fed Will Not Taper In 2021. Inflation Is Not Transitory.
Personal Income is on the rise not because U.S. Productivity is increasing, but because the Federal Government decided it was a good idea to print Dollars and distribute them to Americans. This does not make for a sustainably strong economy. Many of these new pandemic "entitlements" (i.e. welfare) are not going away. Mid-term elections are … Continue reading Federal Transfer Payments To Americans Don’t Equal Economic Strength
We recently wrote about the Biden Administration's $2.3 Trillion Green New Deal. Government spending programs like these will disproportionately increase U.S. imports from China given that the U.S. manufactures little in the way of finished goods while China has solidified its position as the "world's manufacturer". We depict the U.S. trade deficit with China below. … Continue reading U.S. Trade Deficit With China To Explode
Biden's 10-Year Climate Plan - which the Administration is pursuing without the approval of Congress - will tax American companies and citizens. We expect: more bogus carbon offsetting programs across all industries (including Technology), higher consumer energy prices and job losses for Americans. This centralized government power grab is also sure to create enormous fraud … Continue reading Biden’s Climate Plan Is A Tax On Companies And Individuals
A Big Tech vs. Big Government showdown is far less likely than a marriage of the titans. Whether it be Google's search monopoly, the Facebook/ Twitter/ TikTok social media oligopoly, the AWS/ Azure/ GCP oligopoly, the App Store/ Google Play duopoly, or the iOS/Android duopoly, the amount of power and influence concentrated among the world's … Continue reading The Marriage of Big Tech and Big Government
From Bubble valuations to zombie companies to Cleantech, 2021 is likely to deliver more of the excesses of 2020. Barring a negative event out of left field, it will take a meaningful interest rate hike and/or corporate tax increase to derail the asset bubble of 2020 that bled into equities, fixed income, home values, lumber, … Continue reading 2021 Outlook: The Froth Will Continue
A contested election will likely translate to increased market volatility and downside risk for equities. The longer the election resolution process, the greater the volatility and downside risk. A potential capital gains tax increase could lead to selling before year-end. SCOTUS justice Samuel Alito left the door open for President Trump initiated litigation with his … Continue reading What Does A Contested Election Mean for Markets?
Polling should show a Biden lead going into Tuesday's general election given that Democrats have historically participated in early voting in significantly larger numbers than have Republicans. Too Close To Call We believe that Tuesday's election between two fiscally irresponsible parties will be closer than many voters anticipate. Various polls show an early lead for … Continue reading Tuesday’s Election Will Be Closer Than What Polls Show