Since last year we have held the view that the retail investor has piled into the riskiest assets whether they be cryptocurrencies or profitless, high-multiple Technology stocks. This retail phenomenon was powered in large part by Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation benefits (part of the CARES Act), which drew a new investor class into the market. … Continue reading What Will Happen to Crypto & Risk Assets When COVID Unemployment Benefits Expire?
A U.S. CBDC Means Less Privacy for Americans, More Competition for Banks, End of Days for Crypto. (Tickers mentioned: JPM, BAC, WFC) On Thursday Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made a statement about the Fed's progress in exploring a U.S. CBDC ("Central Bank Digital Currency", see the below video). Powell assured viewers that a U.S. … Continue reading A Digital Dollar Is Coming
A digital currency world is coming. The 2022 Beijing Olympics will operate via a digital RMB for local attendees and may include digital cross-border payments as well. Our Federal Reserve is experimenting with digital currency. Both Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen have talked down Bitcoin and said the U.S. will move slowly with … Continue reading Square, PayPal, and Apple Will Dominate A Digital Currency World
Rising yields will slow debt-funded M&A activity. We expect the pace of Technology M&A to slow as companies review M&A pipelines and landscapes, alternative M&A deal structures and alternative capital allocation choices in the face of rising Treasury yields. Technology valuations are near an all-time high. A fresh $1.9 Trillion print could send equity valuations … Continue reading Rising Yields Will Slow M&A Activity
The SPACs just keep coming. EV manufacturer Lucid Motors plans to IPO via Michael Klein's Churchill Capital. Zero revenue and a $24 billion proforma valuation. I find it fascinating that "sober" investors such as Fidelity and BlackRock participate in these bubble deals. Link HERE. Another SPAC listing will take place when Apex Clearing completes its … Continue reading SPAC-Mania, Bitcoin and The Fed
The Fed would have us believe "There's nothing to see here," (to quote Frank Drebin), as it relates to inflation. Consumer spending funded by government debt is of inferior quality as compared to spending funded by increased production. In January Americans spent their debt-funded government checks that were mailed out at the end of December. … Continue reading Long Rates Continue To Climb As Inflation Persists. Nothing To See Here.
MicroStrategy (tkr: MSTR), founder and CEO Michael Saylor has consistently promoted Bitcoin for the past year plus. There is hardly a business network nor crypto-dedicated YouTube channel that hasn't had Mr. Saylor on to promote Bitcoin as MSTR has stockpiled more of the digital currency than any other public company. So what about MSTR's core … Continue reading Is Michael Saylor Running A Software Company Or A Bitcoin Fund?
More than a decade after the initial Tech media buzz digital wallets are enjoying adoption largely driven by stimulus check processing and more recently the cryptocurrency craze. The pace of innovation is accelerating as digital wallets incorporate equity trade execution, cryptocurrency transaction capabilities and more. Many will know of PayPal / Venmo, Square's Cash App, … Continue reading The Cryptocurrency Craze Is Driving Digital Wallet Innovation and Adoption
Gold prices ought to have climbed higher given the amount of money printing that took place in 2020 and that is likely to continue. What happened? Additional debt-funded "stimulus", QE and accompanying asset inflation should have pushed gold prices higher. After all, gold is a safe haven. What gives? (view a chart of the spot … Continue reading Where Is The Gold Rally?
FOMO is stronger than ever given social media, the 24-hour news cycle and various fintech apps that facilitate equity trading. FOMO ("Fear Of Missing Out"), is stronger than ever, especially among the retail trading community. Retail traders are flush with cash coming off of 2020's Federal Government issued checks and enhanced unemployment benefits. Technology has … Continue reading FOMO Is Stronger Than Ever