"Did Powell just say that the pace of Fed Funds Rate increases may slow? Let's run stocks higher through year-end, fundamentals be damned!" I've never seen a more lazy equity market in my life. Fundamentals have not mattered since the COVID lockdowns and Fed policy matters far too much. The market is to blame as … Continue reading Stocks To The Moon, Fundamentals Be Damned
Tag: Chairman Powell
The Fed's tightening is as much about its quest to regain credibility as it is about curbing inflation. The fact that prices for goods and services started to climb in 2020 and have persisted higher for two years is no surprise. The Treasury (subsidized by the Federal Reserve) mailed trillions of freshly-printed U.S. Dollars (helicopter … Continue reading The Fed’s Quest To Regain Credibility
We believe the Fed will continue to raise rates into next year regardless of where the CPI comes in over the next several months. Today the market is trading up as the headline CPI print came in lower than consensus estimates. We believe the market is missing the bigger picture. This CPI / Fed Funds … Continue reading Where We Differ With The Market
What is the logic to suggest that a "short & shallow" recession is likely? Isn't it more likely things will get worse before they get better? The U.S., Europe and China are experiencing economic slowdowns. The U.S. is in a recession if you believe the Atlanta Fed (GDPNow for Q2 2022 is -1.6%. See GDPNow … Continue reading A Short & Shallow Recession?
It would seem to us that the Fed is stalling its QT effort. Inflation will not materially decline unless the Fed materially shrinks the money supply. Looking at the Fed's balance sheet it appears the Fed has stalled its QT effort, especially when one considers that the Fed had planned to reach a $95 billion … Continue reading The Fed Is Blinking
The consensus seems to be that the Fed will cut interest rates in 2023. The 1970's illustrate how inflation could run out-of-control should the Fed prematurely reverse course on its tightening cycle. Priority One: The Fed wants to avoid out-of-control inflation at all costs. Our view is that Fed Chair Powell will be willing to … Continue reading When The Fed Last Pulled Back Too Soon
We expect the June CPI figure to come in around 9% when CPI data is released Wednesday at 8:30am ET. What do we expect for a Fed Funds Rate increase?If the CPI comes in at 8.0-8.5%, we expect that the Fed will increase the Fed Funds Rate by 75 basis points at its FOMC meeting … Continue reading CPI Release On Wednesday: Our Thoughts
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Q2 Real GDP estimate was -2.1% as of July 1st. This marks the second consecutive negative Real GDP quarter which means we are officially in a recession. A recession in 2022 was an easy call for us to make as there was essentially zero probability of the U.S. economy growing in … Continue reading It Is Official. We Are In A Recession.
The Fed's forthcoming QT program has yet to ramp, thus the monetary tightening process has yet to really begin in our view. Tomorrow at 4:30pm ET we will get a picture of where the Fed's balance sheet sits. After shrinking modestly during the month of May, the Fed continues to grow its balance sheet (below). … Continue reading The Fed Has Yet To Reduce Its Balance Sheet
The Fed's economic projections coming out of last week's FOMC meeting are far too optimistic. Fed's Real GDP projections for 2022, 2023 and 2024: 1.7%, 1.7% and 1.9% respectively. 2022 is going to be a zero percent to down Real GDP year in our view. 2023 will be flat with 2022 in our view. 2024 … Continue reading The Delusional Fed