There will be more equity market fallout. Historically, equity markets haven't found a bottom while the Fed is in a tightening cycle. I see the NASDAQ index falling to 9,000 during Q1 2023 as: 1.) the Fed tightens further; 2.) weak 2023 earnings guidance is provided on Q4 EPS calls; and 3.) global recession combine … Continue reading Equities Have A Tough 2023 Ahead
The Housing Supply ratio tells a story of a weakening consumer. Housing Supply: The ratio of new houses for sale to new houses sold is at its highest level (9.3) since May 2010, the latter part of the Great Recession. This despite the fact that mortgage rates have ticked down in recent weeks. Housing Supply … Continue reading Housing Supply & The Weakening Consumer
The New York Fed released its quarterly report on Household Debt and Credit this past week. Consumer strength is waning, not gaining. Loan delinquencies and foreclosures are up across auto loans and mortgage debt which is primarily where debt expansion has occurred in prior months. There are a number of charts between pages 3-40 that … Continue reading Consumer Strength Is Waning
Disney recently refined its segment reporting into two major categories: "Media and Entertainment Distribution" and "Parks, Experiences and Products" detailed in this filing. We have advocated for a separation of Parks from Media, most recently in March 2020. The requisite leadership is in place to manage two separately-traded public companies post-spin. Disney's Parks, Experiences and … Continue reading Disney Getting Closer To Spinning Parks from Media?
We have a growing demand problem as a result of millions of jobs lost to the COVID pandemic (Personal Consumption -13.6% March to April 2020). Many of these jobs are not coming back as companies close permanently, realize they can do more with less and lose market share to competitors. Charts, video and podcasts at … Continue reading Houston, We Have A Demand ProblemPremium