Tag: core cpi

Today’s CPI: What’s To Be Bullish About?

Today’s CPI: What’s To Be Bullish About?

There is not a lot to be bullish about with today's CPI figures. Energy climbed as we wrote it would yesterday. A 5.6% month-to-month increase in Energy prices fueled a 0.6% month-to-month increase in Headline CPI and a 3.7% increase in year-over-year Headline CPI (we estimated 3.6%). Core CPI came in at 0.3% month-to-month and … Continue reading Today’s CPI: What’s To Be Bullish About?

Focus On Core CPI

Focus On Core CPI

Investors should focus on the month-to-month change in Core CPI tomorrow. The month-to-month change in Core CPI for each of the months of March, April and May 2023 was 0.4. June's year-over-year Headline CPI figure will come down significantly when the figure is printed tomorrow at 8:30 am. The reason for the year-over-year deceleration is … Continue reading Focus On Core CPI

CPI Week: Price Inflation Remains Too High

CPI Week: Price Inflation Remains Too High

The Cleveland Fed estimates 6.3% Core CPI for November. CPI data will be published on Tuesday. The 6.3% Core CPI estimate sounds about right. One would expect Core CPI to be flat to slightly down in November. I would expect the Fed to push its Fed Funds Rate north of 5% in 1H 2023 and … Continue reading CPI Week: Price Inflation Remains Too High

With Core Inflation Up The Fed Won’t Change Its Path

With Core Inflation Up The Fed Won’t Change Its Path

We continue to expect the Fed to raise its Fed Funds Rate by 75 BPS in early November. Core inflation was up 0.6% month-to-month (6.6%) for the year. Shelter was the primary driver of Core Inflation as it carried a 32.5% relative weighting and was up 0.7% month-to-month. Food was up 0.8% month-to-month and has … Continue reading With Core Inflation Up The Fed Won’t Change Its Path

Core CPI Runs Hot. Yields To Move Higher.

Core CPI Runs Hot. Yields To Move Higher.

August Core CPI was 6.30%, ahead of the Cleveland Fed's 6.25% estimate (table below), and up from July's 5.90% print. Headline CPI was 8.30%, down from July's 8.50% print given oil's retreat, but ahead of the Cleveland Fed's 8.24% estimate. Our view is that with Core CPI at 6.30%, the Fed will likely raise by … Continue reading Core CPI Runs Hot. Yields To Move Higher.

August CPI To Remain Robust

August CPI To Remain Robust

The Cleveland Fed's current August year-over-year CPI estimate is 8.3%, down 0.2% from July's 8.5% level. The bank estimates August Core CPI at 6.3%, up from July's 5.9% level (while oil prices have fallen, food prices continue to rise). We quote the Cleveland Fed as the bank's view on CPI and Core CPI is in-line … Continue reading August CPI To Remain Robust