There is not a lot to be bullish about with today's CPI figures. Energy climbed as we wrote it would yesterday. A 5.6% month-to-month increase in Energy prices fueled a 0.6% month-to-month increase in Headline CPI and a 3.7% increase in year-over-year Headline CPI (we estimated 3.6%). Core CPI came in at 0.3% month-to-month and … Continue reading Today’s CPI: What’s To Be Bullish About?
Tag: core cpi
Investors should focus on the month-to-month change in Core CPI tomorrow. The month-to-month change in Core CPI for each of the months of March, April and May 2023 was 0.4. June's year-over-year Headline CPI figure will come down significantly when the figure is printed tomorrow at 8:30 am. The reason for the year-over-year deceleration is … Continue reading Focus On Core CPI
Core CPI is likely to remain flat to up when figures are released tomorrow at 8:30am given that "Shelter" - which carries a 34% CPI weighting - is reported on a significant lag. It is unlikely that tomorrow's CPI print will have a significant impact on the Fed's rate and Balance Sheet actions over the … Continue reading CPI Is In The Background
The Cleveland Fed estimates 6.3% Core CPI for November. CPI data will be published on Tuesday. The 6.3% Core CPI estimate sounds about right. One would expect Core CPI to be flat to slightly down in November. I would expect the Fed to push its Fed Funds Rate north of 5% in 1H 2023 and … Continue reading CPI Week: Price Inflation Remains Too High
We continue to expect the Fed to raise its Fed Funds Rate by 75 BPS in early November. Core inflation was up 0.6% month-to-month (6.6%) for the year. Shelter was the primary driver of Core Inflation as it carried a 32.5% relative weighting and was up 0.7% month-to-month. Food was up 0.8% month-to-month and has … Continue reading With Core Inflation Up The Fed Won’t Change Its Path
August Core CPI was 6.30%, ahead of the Cleveland Fed's 6.25% estimate (table below), and up from July's 5.90% print. Headline CPI was 8.30%, down from July's 8.50% print given oil's retreat, but ahead of the Cleveland Fed's 8.24% estimate. Our view is that with Core CPI at 6.30%, the Fed will likely raise by … Continue reading Core CPI Runs Hot. Yields To Move Higher.
We believe there is a 50% probability that the Fed will raise its Fed Funds target range by 100 basis points when the FOMC meets on September 20th and 21st. 50% probability of a 100 basis point increase, 40% probability of a 75 basis point increase, 10% probability of a 50 basis point increase. July … Continue reading 50 vs. 75 vs. 100 BPS
The Fed's motto ought to be "too little, too late", because that is the reality. To use the words "hawkish" and "Fed" in the same sentence is laughable. If we were to play this inconsequential short-term game of a 50 vs. a 75 basis point hike in September we would guess 75 basis points. Core … Continue reading 75 BPS in September If We Were To Guess
The Cleveland Fed's current August year-over-year CPI estimate is 8.3%, down 0.2% from July's 8.5% level. The bank estimates August Core CPI at 6.3%, up from July's 5.9% level (while oil prices have fallen, food prices continue to rise). We quote the Cleveland Fed as the bank's view on CPI and Core CPI is in-line … Continue reading August CPI To Remain Robust