Tag: core cpi

CPI Week: Price Inflation Remains Too High

The Cleveland Fed estimates 6.3% Core CPI for November. CPI data will be published on Tuesday. The 6.3% Core CPI estimate sounds about right. One would expect Core CPI to be flat to slightly down in November. I would expect the Fed to push its Fed Funds Rate north of 5% in 1H 2023 and … Continue reading CPI Week: Price Inflation Remains Too High →

With Core Inflation Up The Fed Won’t Change Its Path

We continue to expect the Fed to raise its Fed Funds Rate by 75 BPS in early November. Core inflation was up 0.6% month-to-month (6.6%) for the year. Shelter was the primary driver of Core Inflation as it carried a 32.5% relative weighting and was up 0.7% month-to-month. Food was up 0.8% month-to-month and has … Continue reading With Core Inflation Up The Fed Won’t Change Its Path →

Core CPI Runs Hot. Yields To Move Higher.

August Core CPI was 6.30%, ahead of the Cleveland Fed's 6.25% estimate (table below), and up from July's 5.90% print. Headline CPI was 8.30%, down from July's 8.50% print given oil's retreat, but ahead of the Cleveland Fed's 8.24% estimate. Our view is that with Core CPI at 6.30%, the Fed will likely raise by … Continue reading Core CPI Runs Hot. Yields To Move Higher. →

50 vs. 75 vs. 100 BPS

We believe there is a 50% probability that the Fed will raise its Fed Funds target range by 100 basis points when the FOMC meets on September 20th and 21st. 50% probability of a 100 basis point increase, 40% probability of a 75 basis point increase, 10% probability of a 50 basis point increase. July … Continue reading 50 vs. 75 vs. 100 BPS →

75 BPS in September If We Were To Guess

The Fed's motto ought to be "too little, too late", because that is the reality. To use the words "hawkish" and "Fed" in the same sentence is laughable. If we were to play this inconsequential short-term game of a 50 vs. a 75 basis point hike in September we would guess 75 basis points. Core … Continue reading 75 BPS in September If We Were To Guess →

August CPI To Remain Robust

The Cleveland Fed's current August year-over-year CPI estimate is 8.3%, down 0.2% from July's 8.5% level. The bank estimates August Core CPI at 6.3%, up from July's 5.9% level (while oil prices have fallen, food prices continue to rise). We quote the Cleveland Fed as the bank's view on CPI and Core CPI is in-line … Continue reading August CPI To Remain Robust →