There is not a lot to be bullish about with today's CPI figures. Energy climbed as we wrote it would yesterday. A 5.6% month-to-month increase in Energy prices fueled a 0.6% month-to-month increase in Headline CPI and a 3.7% increase in year-over-year Headline CPI (we estimated 3.6%). Core CPI came in at 0.3% month-to-month and … Continue reading Today’s CPI: What’s To Be Bullish About?
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish August CPI figures tomorrow morning at 8:30am ET. Our view is that we will get a flattish month-to-month Headline CPI figure and something in the 3.6% range for the year-over-year Headline CPI figure. Energy ought to have ticked up month-to-month as oil prices lifted from July to … Continue reading Tomorrow’s CPI Print. It Will Be There If Powell Wants It.
Despite the talk for higher for longer, Powell will take rates down next year as the $33 Trillion debt bomb can't afford to have today's average interest rate climb from 2.8% to something north of 3%. Make no mistake, the Fed Funds rate will come down in 2024 as the current recession deepens. However, the … Continue reading Powell and Wiggle Room
As we wrote about in early July (HERE), year-over-year inflation is likely to tick-up when CPI data for the month of July is released on Thursday. This is true of both the Headline CPI figure as well as for Core CPI. This is a function of July 2022 being an easier comp than June 2022 … Continue reading July CPI Will Provide The Fed with Ammunition
Consumer wages have been squeezed by higher prices for goods and services for over two years. That price inflation was the result of the fiscal spending under the Trump and Biden Administrations combined with the Fed's subsidization of that spending as well as the Fed's foolish Quantitative Easing ("QE"), program. I don't see how the … Continue reading The Consumer Wage Squeeze
Investors should focus on the month-to-month change in Core CPI tomorrow. The month-to-month change in Core CPI for each of the months of March, April and May 2023 was 0.4. June's year-over-year Headline CPI figure will come down significantly when the figure is printed tomorrow at 8:30 am. The reason for the year-over-year deceleration is … Continue reading Focus On Core CPI
The CPI narrative will get tricky for the Fed if the year-over-year percentage change in Headline CPI accelerates higher as we expect it to beginning on August 10th when the July Headline CPI figure is printed. June 2022 saw a 9.1% peak Headline CPI print (see table below). June 2022 was the year-over-year percentage CPI … Continue reading CPI Comps and The Fed
TEK2day will no longer publish CPI release commentary as per our previously stated view that the BLS substantially understates inflation via its manipulated CPI data. Our view is that the U.S. has experienced negative Real GDP since 2H 2021 as actual price increases (not those calculated per CPI), have far outpaced the velocity of final … Continue reading We Are Done With CPI
We are in and have been in a recession since early/mid 2020. It will get worse. Is Nominal GDP approximately accurate? It's not perfect, but it's directionally correct in my view. Is CPI approximately accurate? Not by a long shot. True price inflation for goods and services was and is far higher than the Government … Continue reading We Are In A Recession
Core CPI is likely to remain flat to up when figures are released tomorrow at 8:30am given that "Shelter" - which carries a 34% CPI weighting - is reported on a significant lag. It is unlikely that tomorrow's CPI print will have a significant impact on the Fed's rate and Balance Sheet actions over the … Continue reading CPI Is In The Background