Tag: debt

U.S. Debt to Reach 195% of GDP by 2050

U.S. Debt to Reach 195% of GDP by 2050

Icarus flew too close to the sun and the United States' fascination with debt may prove to be equally destructive. Yesterday the CBO published its long-term Debt-to-GDP estimates. Those figures show U.S. debt steadily increasing as a percentage of GDP ramping-up to 195% of GDP by 2050. If debt-funded stimulus, zero interest rates and expansionary … Continue reading U.S. Debt to Reach 195% of GDP by 2050

Fiscal & Monetary Policies Are Joined at the Hip

Fiscal & Monetary Policies Are Joined at the Hip

Fiscal and Monetary policy enjoys a symbiotic relationship. Both the fiscal side of the house as well as the monetary side believe (in true Keynesian fashion) that spending is the answer to nursing the U.S. Economy back to health. This shared philosophy ensures that fiscal and monetary policies - State-Led Capitalism - will be coordinated … Continue reading Fiscal & Monetary Policies Are Joined at the Hip

Debt-Loading Is Killing Innovation

Debt-Loading Is Killing Innovation

Ever "carb-load"? I used to. "Carb-loading" is the process of consuming large quantities of carbohydrates which are stored as glycogen and subsequently burned while competing in an athletic event. Doing so made me feel sluggish. Do you know who else feels sluggish? Software companies that Private Equity owners have loaded with debt. It's difficult to … Continue reading Debt-Loading Is Killing Innovation

More Debt-Funded “Stimulus” Ensures Near Zero Real GDP Growth

More Debt-Funded “Stimulus” Ensures Near Zero Real GDP Growth

This next round of debt-funded stimulus will ensure that the U.S. economy look much like Japan's at least for the next decade if not the next 20-30 years. The fiscal side of the ledger is a deficit-promoting mess and the monetary side is complicit by way of subsidizing the debt. Fed official Neel Kashkari believes … Continue reading More Debt-Funded “Stimulus” Ensures Near Zero Real GDP Growth

Markets Are Poised To Grind Lower

Markets Are Poised To Grind Lower

It is going to take several years for the U.S. economy to recover back to 2019 levels. 2019 is a low bar in our view as that economy - much like the present one - was debt-fueled, deficit-ridden and plagued by artificially low interest rates. These factors in the aggregate have stymied sustainable, real economic … Continue reading Markets Are Poised To Grind Lower

TINA, ZIRP, The Future & The Retail Investor

TINA, ZIRP, The Future & The Retail Investor

Investors have lost their minds when it comes to high-flying stocks such as Tesla (TSLA, up 830% over 13 months), Shopify (SHOP, up 210% over 4 months), DataDog (DDOG, up 220% since the March lows), and many other names where valuations are based on anything but the fundamentals. Why? There Is No Alternative (TINA): The … Continue reading TINA, ZIRP, The Future & The Retail Investor

State-Led Capitalism

State-Led Capitalism

Private markets are no longer primarily determined by the actions of private buyers and sellers. The State now controls private markets as the primary mover. Guessing the timing, scale and duration of massive fiscal and monetary programs has superseded if not largely replaced fundamental analysis. That's not to say that fundamentals do not matter, but … Continue reading State-Led Capitalism

It May Not Be Too Late To Issue Equity

It May Not Be Too Late To Issue Equity

Corporate debt is at a record $10.5 trillion (chart 1). Yet as a percentage of U.S. corporate equity market values, debt is a small percentage relative to previous years (chart 2). Thank the Fed for boosting equity valuations. Smart, heavily-levered companies used the opportunity presented over the past few weeks to capitalize on inflated equity … Continue reading It May Not Be Too Late To Issue Equity

This Dove’s Not Crying

This Dove’s Not Crying

Dovish Fed Chair Jerome Powell held day 2 of his semi-annual monetary report to Congress today. To summarize, the Fed's got your back if you are a company of most any size, if you participate in the capital markets, if you are a politician looking for a free lunch, if you desire low interest rates … Continue reading This Dove’s Not Crying

The Forever Bubble-Blowing Fed

The Forever Bubble-Blowing Fed

The Fed's behavior in recent months has been something out of a horror movie. The low interest rate, expansionary monetary policies introduced by former Fed Chair Bernanke and continued by former Fed Chair Yellen have dramatically accelerated under current Fed Chair Powell. Bernanke dealt in $Billions, Chairman Powell prefers $Trillions. Click any of the charts … Continue reading The Forever Bubble-Blowing Fed