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Tag: debt
Weening the market and Americans off of easy fiscal and monetary policy will be no easy task. The Biden Administration's proposed $1.9 Trillion COVID relief package is the first of two multi-Trillion debt-funded "stimulus" tranches to come in 2021. Between zero interest rate policy, debt-funded fiscal stimulus ($1,400 in direct payments to Americans plus extended … Continue reading It Will Be Difficult To Ween The Market Off Of Easy Money
The deal for Australia's Link Group (tkr: LNK) is a competitive one, insofar as Link Group has disclosed. The competing prospective acquirers include SS&C Technologies (tkr: SSNC), and a pair of private equity firms - Sydney-based Pacific Equity Partners (Link's former owner) and Carlyle Group (tkr: CG) whom are bidding together. Our best guess is … Continue reading We Like The Prospective Link Group Acquisition for SS&CPremium
Polling should show a Biden lead going into Tuesday's general election given that Democrats have historically participated in early voting in significantly larger numbers than have Republicans. Too Close To Call We believe that Tuesday's election between two fiscally irresponsible parties will be closer than many voters anticipate. Various polls show an early lead for … Continue reading Tuesday’s Election Will Be Closer Than What Polls Show
An effective recipe for crowding out innovation consists of companies taking on massive amounts of leverage coupled with a Federal Government that has a negative bias toward mergers and acquisitions. We are experiencing this phenomenon now with corporate debt & loans at approximately 56% of GDP (as of Q2, chart below) and a DOJ that … Continue reading High Debt Levels and Negative M&A Bias Are Crowding Out Innovation
"There is nothing more permanent than a temporary government program" - Milton Friedman. First is was the financial crisis of 2008 that "forced" the Fed to perform unnatural acts. It was at this time that the Fed introduced Quantitative Easing ("QE"). QE was to be a "one-and-done" program. That program remains part of the Fed's … Continue reading Muted GDP Will Force Investors to Become More Selective
U.S. policymakers have increasingly utilized debt to fund various spending initiatives without a thought as to the consequences (reminiscent of the last days of the Roman Empire). U.S. reserve currency status and endless monetary expansion have supported this debt addiction. At this rate U.S. reserve currency status is in jeopardy. The chart below depicts total … Continue reading A Nation in Decline: Total Federal Debt Is 136% of GDP
Icarus flew too close to the sun and the United States' fascination with debt may prove to be equally destructive. Yesterday the CBO published its long-term Debt-to-GDP estimates. Those figures show U.S. debt steadily increasing as a percentage of GDP ramping-up to 195% of GDP by 2050. If debt-funded stimulus, zero interest rates and expansionary … Continue reading U.S. Debt to Reach 195% of GDP by 2050
Fiscal and Monetary policy enjoys a symbiotic relationship. Both the fiscal side of the house as well as the monetary side believe (in true Keynesian fashion) that spending is the answer to nursing the U.S. Economy back to health. This shared philosophy ensures that fiscal and monetary policies - State-Led Capitalism - will be coordinated … Continue reading Fiscal & Monetary Policies Are Joined at the Hip
Ever "carb-load"? I used to. "Carb-loading" is the process of consuming large quantities of carbohydrates which are stored as glycogen and subsequently burned while competing in an athletic event. Doing so made me feel sluggish. Do you know who else feels sluggish? Software companies that Private Equity owners have loaded with debt. It's difficult to … Continue reading Debt-Loading Is Killing Innovation
This next round of debt-funded stimulus will ensure that the U.S. economy look much like Japan's at least for the next decade if not the next 20-30 years. The fiscal side of the ledger is a deficit-promoting mess and the monetary side is complicit by way of subsidizing the debt. Fed official Neel Kashkari believes … Continue reading More Debt-Funded “Stimulus” Ensures Near Zero Real GDP Growth
