Tag: defaults

TINA, ZIRP, The Future & The Retail Investor

TINA, ZIRP, The Future & The Retail Investor

Investors have lost their minds when it comes to high-flying stocks such as Tesla (TSLA, up 830% over 13 months), Shopify (SHOP, up 210% over 4 months), DataDog (DDOG, up 220% since the March lows), and many other names where valuations are based on anything but the fundamentals. Why? There Is No Alternative (TINA): The … Continue reading TINA, ZIRP, The Future & The Retail Investor

The Market Is Upside Down

The Market Is Upside Down

We are due for an equity market shakeout. The NASDAQ is up 450% since January 2009. The 26% spike in the NASDAQ from October 2019 to February 2020 on a lack of supporting fundamentals is like nothing I've ever seen. By late March we had traded down 30% from February's high yet we have gained … Continue reading The Market Is Upside Down

Credit Risk Is Substantial and Underestimated

Credit Risk Is Substantial and Underestimated

There is significant credit risk that is not priced into the markets. Looming credit defaults and downgrades - especially high grade to high yield downgrades ("fallen angles") - are bound to create uncertainty beyond the credit markets. There is significant default and downgrade risk associated with Commercial Real Estate ("CRE") credits. Nobody knows when major … Continue reading Credit Risk Is Substantial and Underestimated

U.S. Personal Savings Rates 1959-2019

U.S. Personal Savings Rates 1959-2019

We are doing a bit of work around derivatives exposure. Overnight we reviewed U.S. personal savings rates as a percentage of personal disposable income for the January 1959 - May 2019 period on a monthly basis. The personal savings rate has bounced between 6-8% since January 2013. This is in-line with the mid-to-late 1990's period. … Continue reading U.S. Personal Savings Rates 1959-2019