Disney's Parks business is preventing the "Content" side from realizing its full valuation potential. Look no further than Netflix as a proxy. Disney's (tkr: DIS), "Content" business is significant. "Parks" is large enough to stand on its own. A simple run rate calculation on Disney's December quarter "Content" Operating Income figure of $1.9 billion implies … Continue reading Disney Ought to Spin Off the Parks Business
Disney CEO Bob Iger stepped down from his CEO post effective immediately and will remain Executive Chairman through December 2021. Bob Chapek has been named Chief Executive Officer. Our expectation was that Kevin Mayer - Chairman Direct-to-Consumer & International - would be named Mr. Iger's successor. Does this abrupt CEO change foreshadow a larger transaction? … Continue reading Disney’s Sudden CEO Change – What Does It Foreshadow?
AT&T's acquisition of Time Warner seemed like a good idea at the time. That is no longer true. Tickers mentioned: AAPL, AMZN, CMCSA, DIS, GOOG, NFLX, T, VZ AT&T's $85 billion acquisition of Time Warner seemed like a good idea when it was first kicked around a few years ago. AT&T would differentiate its fiber … Continue reading AT&T Should Sell WarnerMedia
The asset management game is all about Assets Under Management ("AUM"). The entertainment game is all about "IP". By the way, Bob Iger likes Bond. Asset Management & Entertainment Share a Hunger for Assets Over the past decade asset managers have shifted away from active management and alpha generation in favor of index funds and … Continue reading BlackRock and Disney Have This in Common…
Today Disney announced that its new streaming service - Disney+ - crossed the 10 million subscriber mark on Day 1. What might the value of those 10 million new subscribers be if we were to apply a SaaS-like multiple of revenue to the approximate $840 million revenue stream? (read more).
We believe there is significant opportunity cost to Apple TV+. Admittedly it is difficult to quantify. Apple is transitioning from a transaction revenue model (iPhone and related device sales) to a hybrid revenue model as services such as Apple TV+ introduce a recurring revenue element. We like recurring revenue. By definition recurring revenue is predictable … Continue reading Apple TV+
Streaming content provider DAZN suffered a knockout over the weekend that may be impossible to come back from. We are calling it now. The Streaming Wars have suffered the first high profile casualty. DAZN - the nascent streaming network for combat sports - is in the process of raising money. We would love to be … Continue reading Streaming Wars: ESPN+ KO’s DAZN
Episodic TV carries a superior risk/reward compared to feature films. The streaming wars featuring Disney (tkr: DIS), Netflix (tkr: NFLX), Apple (tkr: AAPL), Amazon (tkr: AMZN), AT&T (tkr: T), and others will be won by the content producers that capture the most subscribers over a measurable period of time. Questions that content producers must answer … Continue reading Episodic Television Is the Key to Winning the Streaming Wars
The Death of Netflix and the Rise of DisneyPlus We have been negative on Netflix for years, first publishing our disdain for the expensive middle man in December 2017. We have always viewed Disney as the cream of the crop in the original content world - having the best content portfolio across legacy Disney characters, … Continue reading The Death of Netflix
There are a number of new streaming content providers on the block such as YouTube TV, ESPN+ and the forthcoming Disney+. In addition, legacy content providers such as the New York Times and CBS have caught subscription fever. (free article) Subscription fatigue? Time will tell. We provide subscriber metrics including number of paid subscribers and … Continue reading Streaming Services Unbound