Market leaders may iterate and experiment with less risk of customer churn than upstarts working to establish market position. Amazon Prime is a good example. I am toying with the idea of grouping some of our TEK2day writings as an Amazon Kindle book. While playing with the Kindle direct publishing feature I noticed a new … Continue reading Market Leaders Should Experiment Like Amazon
COVID-19 is forcing people, companies and economies to adapt. Many companies have recalibrated their business models to better compete in this new COVID reality. We have yet to see one of America's great export industries - Hollywood - evolve to better capitalize on the current reality. Back in October 2019 we wrote that the future … Continue reading The Best CEOs Are Willing To Break With Tradition
When compared to Netflix and Disney+, Amazon Prime is the most durable revenue stream of the three. We cover Prime's attributes and where we believe leverage points exist, including Amazon's strategic investment in "COVID-proofing" its distribution and customer-facing operations. There could be an AWS-like opportunity if Amazon decides to commercialize its COVID response. Part I … Continue reading Pt. I: Amazon Prime vs. Netflix & Disney+. Pt. II: Is Amazon Sitting On AWS 2.0?
Disney's Parks business is preventing the "Content" side from realizing its full valuation potential. Look no further than Netflix as a proxy. Disney's (tkr: DIS), "Content" business is significant. "Parks" is large enough to stand on its own. A simple run rate calculation on Disney's December quarter "Content" Operating Income figure of $1.9 billion implies … Continue reading Disney Ought to Spin Off the Parks Business
Disney CEO Bob Iger stepped down from his CEO post effective immediately and will remain Executive Chairman through December 2021. Bob Chapek has been named Chief Executive Officer. Our expectation was that Kevin Mayer - Chairman Direct-to-Consumer & International - would be named Mr. Iger's successor. Does this abrupt CEO change foreshadow a larger transaction? … Continue reading Disney’s Sudden CEO Change – What Does It Foreshadow?
AT&T's acquisition of Time Warner seemed like a good idea at the time. That is no longer true. Tickers mentioned: AAPL, AMZN, CMCSA, DIS, GOOG, NFLX, T, VZ AT&T's $85 billion acquisition of Time Warner seemed like a good idea when it was first kicked around a few years ago. AT&T would differentiate its fiber … Continue reading AT&T Should Sell WarnerMedia
The asset management game is all about Assets Under Management ("AUM"). The entertainment game is all about "IP". By the way, Bob Iger likes Bond. Asset Management & Entertainment Share a Hunger for Assets Over the past decade asset managers have shifted away from active management and alpha generation in favor of index funds and … Continue reading BlackRock and Disney Have This in Common…
Today Disney announced that its new streaming service - Disney+ - crossed the 10 million subscriber mark on Day 1. What might the value of those 10 million new subscribers be if we were to apply a SaaS-like multiple of revenue to the approximate $840 million revenue stream? (read more).
Episodic TV carries a superior risk/reward compared to feature films. The streaming wars featuring Disney (tkr: DIS), Netflix (tkr: NFLX), Apple (tkr: AAPL), Amazon (tkr: AMZN), AT&T (tkr: T), and others will be won by the content producers that capture the most subscribers over a measurable period of time. Questions that content producers must answer … Continue reading Episodic Television Is the Key to Winning the Streaming Wars
The Death of Netflix and the Rise of DisneyPlus We have been negative on Netflix for years, first publishing our disdain for the expensive middle man in December 2017. We have always viewed Disney as the cream of the crop in the original content world - having the best content portfolio across legacy Disney characters, … Continue reading The Death of Netflix