Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Tag: due diligence
Tiger Global paid Bain & Co. $100 million to perform due diligence, yet Bain somehow missed that FTX was a fraud. Helpful hint: check the bank statement next time. Then, work your way backwards through the cash flow chain. I can understanding hiring industry experts or functional specialists to assist with your internal investment due … Continue reading Saying “No” To Deals Avoids Blowups
Why the venture community invested in kids running crypto exchanges is beyond me. If the venture firms that put money into FTX did an ounce of due diligence they would have passed on the deal. Did anyone ask to confirm bank deposits and customer reserves? Did anyone ask about customer trading records and associated reporting … Continue reading Investor Due Diligence. You Get What You Deserve.
You are crazy if you do not believe that most if not all of the various crypto exchanges were/are front-running customer orders. Similarly, robbing Peter to pay Paul crypto Ponzi schemes make Madoff look like an amateur when one considers total AUM. The SEC ought to have stepped in under Trump and regulated the exchanges … Continue reading Enjoying The Crypto Winter
Our view of the Equity market over the next few years calls for a choppy market that will reward Active Managers and penalize the Buy & Hold crowd. This forthcoming "choppy" market will not be a market where most Technology stocks move up or down, or where certain sectors move in unison. Rather, we are … Continue reading The Return of Active Management
We are getting closer to finding a bottom but are a long way off from capitulation across the equity markets. Equity Bottom: We believe a bottom will not be found before the Fed achieves its QT run rate of $95 billion per month which is likely to occur around Labor Day. Recession: We expect the … Continue reading It’s No Longer Enough To Buy The Narrative
It Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better We wrote months ago that peak inflation is not in sight. We expect prices to continue to rise for the month of June across food, shelter and energy above today's 8.6% CPI print. We see the impact of price inflation on GDP (Atlanta Fed's "GDPNow" estimate is … Continue reading Prices Are Hot. The Economy Is Not.
As equity valuations pull back and recession looms investors ought to take cover by investing in industry-leading companies led by quality management teams. The universe of such investment opportunities can't be identified by PE or cash flow multiples, dividend yields or the like. While valuation metrics are a decent filter (example: I would never pay … Continue reading Focus On Quality Management Teams
Over the past several months we have written that the new economic normal means a target CPI in the 3-4% range and muted Real GDP in the 0-2% range. Interest rates can't go back to the Volcker days as Treasury would not be able to refinance its debt at double-digit rates. We could however see … Continue reading What Will The “New Normal” Look Like?
Small cap equities and international equities are generally good places for investors to begin their work of finding undervalued companies. In this age of ultra-low interest rates and overvalued assets it makes sense for public company investors to look for value in areas of the market that receive less investor attention than sectors that garner … Continue reading For Stock Returns, Look Where Others Are Not
Over the weekend Warren Buffett stated that poor leadership is the greatest risk facing companies. Mr. Buffett is preaching to the choir and knows a thing or two about bad leadership having lived through scandal and CEO turnover at Wells Fargo while Berkshire was a large holder. Coca Cola - another Berkshire holding - hasn't … Continue reading CEO Quality Matters. Warren Buffett Agrees.
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