Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Tag: earnings estimates
The 2008 downturn and the current downcycle have similarities as far as investor sentiment is concerned. We believe that investor sentiment will sour early next year as Q4 2022 earnings reports come in. 2023 earnings estimates and stock prices will move lower off of the Q4 EPS reports. Early cycle disbelief. I recall that in … Continue reading Not So Fast. This Won’t Be Quick & Painless.
This spring when I said the NASDAQ would bottom around 9,000 my thinking was as follows: 2022 would be a year where higher interest rates reset equity valuations lower, especially as it relates to the NASDAQ Composite. 2023 would be a year where poor company fundamentals reset equity valuations lower. The NASDAQ has experienced some … Continue reading Markets Have Another Leg Down
It is best for companies to be conservative with their Q4 and 2023 outlook on EPS calls. We are 1/6 through Q4 and Technology companies have to be seeing weaker demand today versus 3 and 6 months ago. Enterprise Technology companies are likely seeing deals of all sizes get pushed back in the pipeline - … Continue reading It Is Best For Companies To Be Conservative On Q3 EPS Calls
P/E multiples will be in flux for the next few months. Phase I will begin in October. Phase II will begin in January. The sequence will look something like the following: Analysts: Many sell-side analysts will revise their December quarter Revenue and Earnings estimates downward coming off of the September quarter earnings calls beginning in … Continue reading P/E Multiples In Flux
Higher U.S. interest rates will continue to ensure that capital will flow disproportionately into U.S. Dollars at the expense of other countries and currencies. For companies that sell into the U.K., Germany, western Europe in general as well as Japan, this means that Reported Revenue will be haircut in future quarters as local currency is … Continue reading FX Headwinds Will Persist Into 2023
This "bad news is good news" trade that has persisted over the past 2-3 weeks is nonsense. Ask yourself: "what is coming next"? Earnings: On the earnings front, 2022 and 2023 Revenue and EPS estimates are coming down later this month. Within the Technology sector, investors will see the impact of this with soft Ad … Continue reading Bad News Is Good News Is Nonsense
While the S&P 500 index is down approximately 21% YTD, it appreciated 44% from its pre-COVID high in February 2020 to its recent high during January 2022. One could argue that the pre-COVID high of February 2020 was a rich valuation for the index which benefited from years of accomodative Fed policy and low inflation. … Continue reading Earnings Estimates Are Too High
One thing that's for sure is that many companies are hesitant to get in front of bad news. Given that inflation in all forms is not going anywhere, we expect many companies to report Revenue and Earnings shortfalls in April as March quarter results and 2022 full year outlooks are communicated to investors. Inflation has … Continue reading Get Ready for EPS Misses
Investors have lost their minds when it comes to high-flying stocks such as Tesla (TSLA, up 830% over 13 months), Shopify (SHOP, up 210% over 4 months), DataDog (DDOG, up 220% since the March lows), and many other names where valuations are based on anything but the fundamentals. Why? There Is No Alternative (TINA): The … Continue reading TINA, ZIRP, The Future & The Retail Investor
Forward PE multiples are too low. Given where the numerator is, S&P 500 forward PE multiples ought to be far higher. Earnings estimates are inflated and need to come down. The stark contrast between PE multiples during the Great Recession as compared to today's S&P 500 forward PE multiple of 22x should raise eyebrows. https://soundcloud.com/ceorater
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