Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Tag: Earnings
When I look at Technology company earnings estimates for 2024 they appear too bullish. 2024 EPS growth rates will decline. For many companies EPS will go negative on an absolute basis (2024 EPS as compared to 2023). Here are some reasons why: Revenue growth will decline: Revenue growth will decline for many Technology companies as … Continue reading Earnings Growth Rates Will Decline In 2024
First, an administrative detail: TEK2day readers may now find TEK2day on Substack HERE. We will publish our articles both here as well as on Substack. With respect to Enterprise Software earnings, I suspect that most Software companies will take a more conservative approach to their Q4 2023 and early 2024 outlooks as compared to prior … Continue reading Enterprise Software Earnings Outlook: Get Ready For Conservative Outlooks
I expect a weak Q1 earnings season later this month across the Technology sector, including Enterprise Software. Companies may report in-line Q1 Revenues & EPS (perhaps modest EPS beats), but the pace of new sales activity will have fallen off year-over-year during the quarter, especially during the 2nd half of Q1. There is simply too … Continue reading Tech Layoffs & Q1 Earnings
Approximately 102 thousand employees have been laid off across the Technology industry in 2023. That figure is 64% of 2022's 160 thousand Tech sector layoff total. If you thought June 2022 was bad from a layoff perspective, November 2022 was worse. If you thought November was bad, January 2023 was worse. My guess is that … Continue reading Layoffs Continue To Ramp
History rhymes. Today feels a lot like 2008 when many investors expected an economic rebound in the back half of 2008. When that did not happen, 2009 was to be the rebound year. 2010 then became the year when the economy would normalize after 2009 proved to be worse than 2008. 2010 presented only a … Continue reading It’s 2008 & Life’s The Same Except For My Shoes
Get ready for an uptick in share repurchase plan announcements. This earnings season as Technology companies issue weak guidance you can be sure that many of those companies will announce new share repurchase agreements to support stock prices. Share repurchase agreements are a waste of capital in my view. CEOs should invest in their businesses … Continue reading Weak Earnings & Buybacks
Tonight after the close Microsoft (MSFT) made our case for us, specifically that the uncertain macro environment is causing corporate buyers to take a cautious approach to spending. We told you that management teams would feature the word "cautious" during the December '22 earnings calls and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella did just that in the … Continue reading Microsoft Made Our Case For Us
The S&P 500 is approximately at its long-term average P/E multiple of 20x (if one looks back to 1964). However, that multiple could go lower should the Fed hold rates higher for a longer period than what many investors expect. Further, markets tend not to bottom until after the Fed begins to cut rates (we … Continue reading How Low Will Valuations Go?
Get ready to hear the word "cautious" repeated ad nauseam on forthcoming Technology company EPS calls this month and next. Temenos (tkr: TEMN), is one such example. You may read the FinTech company's Q4 press release here: https://www.temenos.com/news/2023/01/16/temenos-pre-announces-preliminary-q4-and-fy-2022-results-bxf9181m/ Temenos also announced a CEO change. I expect to see more CEO changes than normal in 2023. … Continue reading Q4’22 EPS Call Buzzword: “Cautious”
Hopefully most public and private companies took a conservative approach to building their 2023 budgets last year. It is best for public companies to take a similarly conservative approach to 2023 Revenue and EPS guidance during the current earnings season. Most CEOs did not live through the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis. The 2008-2009 period was an … Continue reading 2023: Conservative Budgets & Guidance Are Best
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