A well-reasoned, fundamental-based investment process incorporates company-specific analysis combined with industry trends and macro-economic drivers. This approach helps identify valuation "dislocations" which may be leveraged to the upside or downside. However, fundamentals have never mattered less. Investors' collective attention is glued to Washington with one eye squarely focused on the Fed and the other on … Continue reading Will The Fed Purchase Equity ETFs Next?
Tag: Economic Stimulus
It is going to take several years for the U.S. economy to recover back to 2019 levels. 2019 is a low bar in our view as that economy - much like the present one - was debt-fueled, deficit-ridden and plagued by artificially low interest rates. These factors in the aggregate have stymied sustainable, real economic … Continue reading Markets Are Poised To Grind Lower
We have published a list of businesses that received PPP loans of $150 thousand or greater. The list includes 616, 218 entries. Access the Excel file below. Today Treasury and the SBA released details of the various businesses that borrowed PPP funds. Included in the Excel detail are: loan size ranges, business names and addresses, … Continue reading List of PPP Loan Recipients
Q3'20, Q4'20 and calendar 2021 consensus estimates need to come down. Why? 21% unemployment (U6 measure), permanent economic damage that businesses suffered (and will continue to suffer), as a result of the shutdown, the COVID "back-to-work tax", the threat of a second COVID wave, geopolitical risk, record debt levels and social unrest have created more … Continue reading Expect A Bumpy Ride For The Economy and The Capital Markets Over The Next Several Years.
We have a growing demand problem as a result of millions of jobs lost to the COVID pandemic (Personal Consumption -13.6% March to April 2020). Many of these jobs are not coming back as companies close permanently, realize they can do more with less and lose market share to competitors. Charts, video and podcasts at … Continue reading Houston, We Have A Demand ProblemPremium
The market is trading on speculation. Fundamentals don't matter now. Fundamentals will matter again. The Fed can print only so much money before inflation rears its ugly head. We can't continue to devalue the dollar as a matter of long-term monetary policy without consequences. Our "print first, ask questions later" monetary policy and "subsidize everything" … Continue reading Mr. Market Is Trading On Speculation. Fundamentals Will Matter Again.
The economy will not enjoy a "V" recovery. A combination of defaults, bankruptcies, market disruption and high unemployment will make for a gradual recovery. PPP and Fed liquidity will eventually expire. Admittedly the Fed will likely inject more capital into the economy growing its already bloated $6.6 Trillion balance sheet. At some point this all … Continue reading A “V” Recovery Is Not In the Cards
Headcount reductions continue. We have updated our list of recent Tech company layoffs. Access the Excel version HERE. The PDF version may be accessed HERE. It is difficult to imagine a snap economic recovery as companies continue to shed talented people. The mythical "V" recovery would require all components of the global economy to recover … Continue reading Tech Layoffs & The Mythical “V” Recovery
Earnings calls thus far have struck a similar tone XYZ CEO: "Let me begin by saying our thoughts are with..."XYZ CEO: "We are grateful for the opportunity to delight our customers during this difficult time. We got off to a good start in the months of January and February as we experienced healthy year-over-year growth. … Continue reading Earnings Season Thus Far: Lack of Color & Backbone
Square's (tkr: SQ) Cash App appears to be winning the mind share battle against Venmo, the peer-to-peer ("P2P") payments platform owned by PayPal (tkr: PYPL). We ran a Google Trends analysis on search terms "Cash App" and "Venmo" for two time periods - the past 12 months and the past 30 days - for Google … Continue reading Is Square’s Cash App Winning The P2P War?