Credit Markets (Yes): A liquidity crisis would cause the Fed to pivot. If the credit markets seized up the Fed would intervene. Market intervention is after all the Fed's operating model (as is the case for all central banks). Consumers and investors would have to lose confidence in the U.S. Economy to the point where … Continue reading What Would Cause The Fed To Pivot?
Tag: Economic Stimulus
Economists pushing the narrative that Real GDP growth will climb back to mid-single-digit percentages in 2022 have got it wrong. The combination of persistent price inflation and weak labor participation will ensure that Real GDP remains range bound between zero and 2%. The sooner Wall Street pundits learn to say "Stagflation" the more honest conversation … Continue reading Real GDP Growth Will Not Rebound In 2022
Our past two articles focused on Advanced Automation manifested through the application of broadly-defined Artificial Intelligence as applied to Enterprise Software. Continuing the Advanced Automation theme, we expect food producers, automobile producers, retailers and other operations to accelerate their adoption of various forms of advanced automation including Robotics and automated payments (think Amazon Go's cashierless … Continue reading Inflation and Regulation Will Accelerate Adoption of Advanced Automation
Rising yields will slow debt-funded M&A activity. We expect the pace of Technology M&A to slow as companies review M&A pipelines and landscapes, alternative M&A deal structures and alternative capital allocation choices in the face of rising Treasury yields. Technology valuations are near an all-time high. A fresh $1.9 Trillion print could send equity valuations … Continue reading Rising Yields Will Slow M&A Activity
The fiscal deficit will be stimulated to new heights once the $1.9 trillion debt package is passed by Congress. Speculative securities, SPAC deal flow, general fraud and moral hazard will also be stimulated along with housing and automobile prices. This debt package will do nothing to create sustainable employment nor sustainable GDP growth. Rather, the … Continue reading List of 160+ CEOs Who Favor Additional Debt-Funded Transfer Payments To “Stimulate” The U.S. Economy
Gold prices ought to have climbed higher given the amount of money printing that took place in 2020 and that is likely to continue. What happened? Additional debt-funded "stimulus", QE and accompanying asset inflation should have pushed gold prices higher. After all, gold is a safe haven. What gives? (view a chart of the spot … Continue reading Where Is The Gold Rally?
A contested election will likely translate to increased market volatility and downside risk for equities. The longer the election resolution process, the greater the volatility and downside risk. A potential capital gains tax increase could lead to selling before year-end. SCOTUS justice Samuel Alito left the door open for President Trump initiated litigation with his … Continue reading What Does A Contested Election Mean for Markets?
We believe there will be multiple fiscal stimulus rounds. When one considers the stalled economy, negligible Real GDP growth and high unemployment, it would seem that this $2 Trillion stimulus round under discussion won't be sufficient to satisfy the narrative that Government needs to do more. When one factors in runaway entitlements (table below), it … Continue reading Multiple Fiscal Stimulus Rounds Are Coming. Good News for Equities. Bad News for The Real Economy.
A well-reasoned, fundamental-based investment process incorporates company-specific analysis combined with industry trends and macro-economic drivers. This approach helps identify valuation "dislocations" which may be leveraged to the upside or downside. However, fundamentals have never mattered less. Investors' collective attention is glued to Washington with one eye squarely focused on the Fed and the other on … Continue reading Will The Fed Purchase Equity ETFs Next?
It is going to take several years for the U.S. economy to recover back to 2019 levels. 2019 is a low bar in our view as that economy - much like the present one - was debt-fueled, deficit-ridden and plagued by artificially low interest rates. These factors in the aggregate have stymied sustainable, real economic … Continue reading Markets Are Poised To Grind Lower