The Memorial Day weekend brought a modest improvement in the rate of decline as it relates to year-over-year airline passenger volume. The year-over-year decline peaked at -96% on April 16th and averaged -88% for the May 22nd - May 24th period. A modest positive for the economy. However, the airlines need to experience far more … Continue reading Air Travel Picks Up Over Memorial Day WeekendPremium
Step 1.) Close down a country: What's done is done. However, one of the consequences of shutting down the United States is that the speculative grade default rate is expected to almost triple - 4.7% to 14.4% - within the next year. Not to speak of the millions of non-public businesses that have suffered revenue … Continue reading How to Destroy Productivity & Thwart Innovation: A 4-Step ProcessPremium
To the Moon! Many Technology stocks are at or near all-time highs despite the fact that 40 million people are out of work. Despite the fact that many of those jobs aren't coming back. Despite the fact that CRE deals are not getting done. Despite the fact that airline travel is still off 90%-plus and … Continue reading Market Euphoria & Perspective
The market is trading on speculation. Fundamentals don't matter now. Fundamentals will matter again. The Fed can print only so much money before inflation rears its ugly head. We can't continue to devalue the dollar as a matter of long-term monetary policy without consequences. Our "print first, ask questions later" monetary policy and "subsidize everything" … Continue reading Mr. Market Is Trading On Speculation. Fundamentals Will Matter Again.
Diners in some states have turned out as COVID restrictions were lifted. These states include: Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas. Access our PDF sheet HERE. Click HERE to access the Excel data. Data is organized by state and report date. https://soundcloud.com/ceorater
The depression will be deep and broad. Yes, even the beloved Enterprise Software sector will be impacted despite investors who believe the sector is impervious to negative inputs. The bullet points below are not hypothetical puts to the economy. They are real and are happening now. Banks are tightening credit. Commercial bankers are tightening now. … Continue reading The Pain Is Coming & The Recovery Will Be Uneven
The most recent estimates by Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health predict a late May 2020 acceleration in new COVID-19 cases and deaths. The latest projections by Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health predict that new COVID-19 cases and deaths will rebound in late May (nationally), as states relax stay-at-home restrictions. The researchers … Continue reading Late May COVID-19 Ramp?
19 states began to reopen for business in a limited capacity. States adhered to the Phase I protocol recently outlined by the Trump Administration (we covered here), a key component of which includes social distancing/ limiting occupancy. 20-50% business occupancy limits are common with most states closer to 20%. These limitations will certainly hinder an … Continue reading Reopening America: The Numbers
Headcount reductions continue. We have updated our list of recent Tech company layoffs. Access the Excel version HERE. The PDF version may be accessed HERE. It is difficult to imagine a snap economic recovery as companies continue to shed talented people. The mythical "V" recovery would require all components of the global economy to recover … Continue reading Tech Layoffs & The Mythical “V” Recovery
Earnings calls thus far have struck a similar tone XYZ CEO: "Let me begin by saying our thoughts are with..."XYZ CEO: "We are grateful for the opportunity to delight our customers during this difficult time. We got off to a good start in the months of January and February as we experienced healthy year-over-year growth. … Continue reading Earnings Season Thus Far: Lack of Color & Backbone