Tag: economy

More Debt-Funded “Stimulus” Ensures Near Zero Real GDP Growth

More Debt-Funded “Stimulus” Ensures Near Zero Real GDP Growth

This next round of debt-funded stimulus will ensure that the U.S. economy look much like Japan's at least for the next decade if not the next 20-30 years. The fiscal side of the ledger is a deficit-promoting mess and the monetary side is complicit by way of subsidizing the debt. Fed official Neel Kashkari believes … Continue reading More Debt-Funded “Stimulus” Ensures Near Zero Real GDP Growth

Worth Its Weight In Gold?

Worth Its Weight In Gold?

The pundits chat up gold and silver in the midst of economic uncertainty and trade tensions with China. They are forgetting the Fed's record money printing party. Investors who were concerned about the recent rapid, large scale expansion of the money supply (particularly M1) have had positions in gold and/or silver since early April of … Continue reading Worth Its Weight In Gold?

Markets Are Poised To Grind Lower

Markets Are Poised To Grind Lower

It is going to take several years for the U.S. economy to recover back to 2019 levels. 2019 is a low bar in our view as that economy - much like the present one - was debt-fueled, deficit-ridden and plagued by artificially low interest rates. These factors in the aggregate have stymied sustainable, real economic … Continue reading Markets Are Poised To Grind Lower

Seated Diners by U.S. City & State

Seated Diners by U.S. City & State

The number of seated diners (as measured by walk-ins and reservations on OpenTable) remains down materially on a year-over-year basis for both cities and states. We built the charts below using a 7-Day average comprised of the last 7 days ending July 4th 2020. Reach me at jmaietta@tek2day.com to access the complete data set which … Continue reading Seated Diners by U.S. City & State

List of PPP Loan Recipients

List of PPP Loan Recipients

We have published a list of businesses that received PPP loans of $150 thousand or greater. The list includes 616, 218 entries. Access the Excel file below. Today Treasury and the SBA released details of the various businesses that borrowed PPP funds. Included in the Excel detail are: loan size ranges, business names and addresses, … Continue reading List of PPP Loan Recipients

Expect A Bumpy Ride For The Economy and The Capital Markets Over The Next Several Years.

Expect A Bumpy Ride For The Economy and The Capital Markets Over The Next Several Years.

Q3'20, Q4'20 and calendar 2021 consensus estimates need to come down. Why? 21% unemployment (U6 measure), permanent economic damage that businesses suffered (and will continue to suffer), as a result of the shutdown, the COVID "back-to-work tax", the threat of a second COVID wave, geopolitical risk, record debt levels and social unrest have created more … Continue reading Expect A Bumpy Ride For The Economy and The Capital Markets Over The Next Several Years.

U.S. Economy Improves from COVID Lows Boosted by Bars & Restaurants

U.S. Economy Improves from COVID Lows Boosted by Bars & Restaurants

Total non-farm payroll employment increased by +2.5 million in May led by a recovery in Leisure and Hospitality. The biggest driver was bars and restaurants ("Food Services and Drinking Establishments"), which added +1.4 million jobs and accounted for 56% of total non-farm payroll additions. Non-farm employment in May improved sequentially and was 13% below February … Continue reading U.S. Economy Improves from COVID Lows Boosted by Bars & Restaurants

Air Travel Picks Up Over Memorial Day Weekend<span class="badge-status" style="background:red">Premium</span> 

Air Travel Picks Up Over Memorial Day WeekendPremium 

The Memorial Day weekend brought a modest improvement in the rate of decline as it relates to year-over-year airline passenger volume. The year-over-year decline peaked at -96% on April 16th and averaged -88% for the May 22nd - May 24th period. A modest positive for the economy. However, the airlines need to experience far more … Continue reading Air Travel Picks Up Over Memorial Day WeekendPremium 

How to Destroy Productivity & Thwart Innovation: A 4-Step Process<span class="badge-status" style="background:red">Premium</span> 

How to Destroy Productivity & Thwart Innovation: A 4-Step ProcessPremium 

Step 1.) Close down a country: What's done is done. However, one of the consequences of shutting down the United States is that the speculative grade default rate is expected to almost triple - 4.7% to 14.4% - within the next year. Not to speak of the millions of non-public businesses that have suffered revenue … Continue reading How to Destroy Productivity & Thwart Innovation: A 4-Step ProcessPremium