Tag: economy

It Is Beginning To Look Like Stagflation

It Is Beginning To Look Like Stagflation

The Atlanta Fed's real GDP estimate of 3.7% is well below inflation as measured by the Fed (CPI of 5.4%) and well below any real world price inflation measure. We do not subscribe to the Fed's theory that price inflation is transitory. Our view is that price inflation will grow from here. If real GDP … Continue reading It Is Beginning To Look Like Stagflation

Cash Flow Is King In A Bubble Economy

Cash Flow Is King In A Bubble Economy

Cash flow is king in a world smitten by nosebleed valuations and unsustainable spending The Fed's commentary around potentially increasing the Fed Funds Rate in 2023 vs. 2024 reminds me of the equity analyst who would base his valuation case on a P/E multiple applied to an earnings estimate that was five years in the … Continue reading Cash Flow Is King In A Bubble Economy

The Colonial Pipeline Cyberattack Exposes A Significant Economic and National Security Risk

The Colonial Pipeline Cyberattack Exposes A Significant Economic and National Security Risk

We have written numerous articles about the risks associated with legacy technologies from a cybersecurity perspective. It seems Colonial Pipeline got off easy in its recent ransomware cyberattack. The economic and national security impact would have been significant if an enemy state decided to corrupt Colonial's systems in such a manner so as to prevent … Continue reading The Colonial Pipeline Cyberattack Exposes A Significant Economic and National Security Risk

Workers Choose To Collect Federal Unemployment Benefits Rather Than Work

Workers Choose To Collect Federal Unemployment Benefits Rather Than Work

Low wage services jobs are difficult to fill as we recently wrote (we continue to collect anecdotal data that supports our prior writing). Workers are choosing to stay home and collect Federal unemployment benefits rather than be productive. The moral hazard we warned of months ago is here. Should Biden and The Fed choose to … Continue reading Workers Choose To Collect Federal Unemployment Benefits Rather Than Work

The Return of Live Events

The Return of Live Events

This year's Super Bowl in Jacksonville, FL had limited fans in attendance. The WWE (tkr: WWE) plans a return to live events in 2H 2021 per last night's earnings call. This Saturday Endeavor's UFC business unit will host approximately 15,000 fans at its in-arena event (also in Jacksonville) and plans to be in Texas for … Continue reading The Return of Live Events

Biden’s Climate Plan Is A Tax On Companies And Individuals

Biden’s Climate Plan Is A Tax On Companies And Individuals

Biden's 10-Year Climate Plan - which the Administration is pursuing without the approval of Congress - will tax American companies and citizens. We expect: more bogus carbon offsetting programs across all industries (including Technology), higher consumer energy prices and job losses for Americans. This centralized government power grab is also sure to create enormous fraud … Continue reading Biden’s Climate Plan Is A Tax On Companies And Individuals

Where Is The Gold Rally?

Where Is The Gold Rally?

Gold prices ought to have climbed higher given the amount of money printing that took place in 2020 and that is likely to continue. What happened? Additional debt-funded "stimulus", QE and accompanying asset inflation should have pushed gold prices higher. After all, gold is a safe haven. What gives? (view a chart of the spot … Continue reading Where Is The Gold Rally?

When You Are Your Biggest Customer

When You Are Your Biggest Customer

The U.S. is similar to a legacy Technology company whose best days are in the rear view mirror. A telltale sign of this reality is that fact that the Federal Reserve is the largest buyer of U.S. Treasuries. There was a time when Japan and China were the largest holders of U.S. Treasury securities. Today, … Continue reading When You Are Your Biggest Customer

Tuesday’s Election Will Be Closer Than What Polls Show

Tuesday’s Election Will Be Closer Than What Polls Show

Polling should show a Biden lead going into Tuesday's general election given that Democrats have historically participated in early voting in significantly larger numbers than have Republicans. Too Close To Call We believe that Tuesday's election between two fiscally irresponsible parties will be closer than many voters anticipate. Various polls show an early lead for … Continue reading Tuesday’s Election Will Be Closer Than What Polls Show

More Debt-Funded “Stimulus” Ensures Near Zero Real GDP Growth

More Debt-Funded “Stimulus” Ensures Near Zero Real GDP Growth

This next round of debt-funded stimulus will ensure that the U.S. economy look much like Japan's at least for the next decade if not the next 20-30 years. The fiscal side of the ledger is a deficit-promoting mess and the monetary side is complicit by way of subsidizing the debt. Fed official Neel Kashkari believes … Continue reading More Debt-Funded “Stimulus” Ensures Near Zero Real GDP Growth