The U.S. is similar to a legacy Technology company whose best days are in the rear view mirror. A telltale sign of this reality is that fact that the Federal Reserve is the largest buyer of U.S. Treasuries. There was a time when Japan and China were the largest holders of U.S. Treasury securities. Today, … Continue reading When You Are Your Biggest Customer
Polling should show a Biden lead going into Tuesday's general election given that Democrats have historically participated in early voting in significantly larger numbers than have Republicans. Too Close To Call We believe that Tuesday's election between two fiscally irresponsible parties will be closer than many voters anticipate. Various polls show an early lead for … Continue reading Tuesday’s Election Will Be Closer Than What Polls Show
This next round of debt-funded stimulus will ensure that the U.S. economy look much like Japan's at least for the next decade if not the next 20-30 years. The fiscal side of the ledger is a deficit-promoting mess and the monetary side is complicit by way of subsidizing the debt. Fed official Neel Kashkari believes … Continue reading More Debt-Funded “Stimulus” Ensures Near Zero Real GDP Growth
The pundits chat up gold and silver in the midst of economic uncertainty and trade tensions with China. They are forgetting the Fed's record money printing party. Investors who were concerned about the recent rapid, large scale expansion of the money supply (particularly M1) have had positions in gold and/or silver since early April of … Continue reading Worth Its Weight In Gold?
It is going to take several years for the U.S. economy to recover back to 2019 levels. 2019 is a low bar in our view as that economy - much like the present one - was debt-fueled, deficit-ridden and plagued by artificially low interest rates. These factors in the aggregate have stymied sustainable, real economic … Continue reading Markets Are Poised To Grind Lower
The number of seated diners (as measured by walk-ins and reservations on OpenTable) remains down materially on a year-over-year basis for both cities and states. We built the charts below using a 7-Day average comprised of the last 7 days ending July 4th 2020. Reach me at email@example.com to access the complete data set which … Continue reading Seated Diners by U.S. City & State
We have published a list of businesses that received PPP loans of $150 thousand or greater. The list includes 616, 218 entries. Access the Excel file below. Today Treasury and the SBA released details of the various businesses that borrowed PPP funds. Included in the Excel detail are: loan size ranges, business names and addresses, … Continue reading List of PPP Loan Recipients
Q3'20, Q4'20 and calendar 2021 consensus estimates need to come down. Why? 21% unemployment (U6 measure), permanent economic damage that businesses suffered (and will continue to suffer), as a result of the shutdown, the COVID "back-to-work tax", the threat of a second COVID wave, geopolitical risk, record debt levels and social unrest have created more … Continue reading Expect A Bumpy Ride For The Economy and The Capital Markets Over The Next Several Years.
We source year-over-year seated dining data. Our presentation organizes seated dining data by Country, State and City. The PDF version (free) summarizes the data. The Excel version (premium, after the break) includes summaries plus daily data. Click HERE to download the PDF version. Click HERE to download the Excel version. https://soundcloud.com/ceorater
Total non-farm payroll employment increased by +2.5 million in May led by a recovery in Leisure and Hospitality. The biggest driver was bars and restaurants ("Food Services and Drinking Establishments"), which added +1.4 million jobs and accounted for 56% of total non-farm payroll additions. Non-farm employment in May improved sequentially and was 13% below February … Continue reading U.S. Economy Improves from COVID Lows Boosted by Bars & Restaurants