Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Tag: employment
The labor force participation rate has declined steadily for 20-plus years. There is no great mystery as to why. Government social benefits (i.e. welfare payments), to Americans have grown dramatically. The green line in the chart below is the Labor Force Participation Rate. The red line plots Government social benefits. The two big red spikes … Continue reading The Labor Problem
We do not believe that investors fully appreciate how fragile the U.S. economy is. Our view is that the U.S. economy is in a recession and that this period will be followed by long-term muted growth given: 1.) the enormous U.S. Government debt load ($30.4 trillion), 2.) persistent price inflation, 3.) a consumption-driven economy rather … Continue reading The U.S. Economy Is Long-Term Fragile
A byproduct of the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (“PEUC”) program is the job interview "no show", which has become all too common across the Retail sector. The "no show" is where a job candidate skips the job interview because the candidate never intended to obtain a job. Rather, the candidate simply needed to show proof … Continue reading The Job Interview “No Show”
Whether one measures EV/Revenue multiples, EV/EBITDA multiples, Stock Market P/E multiples or various other measures there is no doubt the market is frothy and that certain sectors are firmly in bubble territory. Two trends are troublesome. The first is that the Market Cap to GDP ratio (measured by the Wilshire 5000 index to Nominal GDP) … Continue reading Stocks Are at A High. Labor Participation Is at A Low.
Credit spreads will widen in our view primarily driven by job losses and increases in the cost of goods and services. There is downward pressure on jobs as we usher in the fall season. Seasonal summer jobs essentially work their way to zero from Labor Day to Columbus Day. Government jobs around the U.S. Census … Continue reading Credit Spreads Will Widen as Job Losses Mount and Supply-Side Costs Increase
Investors have lost their minds when it comes to high-flying stocks such as Tesla (TSLA, up 830% over 13 months), Shopify (SHOP, up 210% over 4 months), DataDog (DDOG, up 220% since the March lows), and many other names where valuations are based on anything but the fundamentals. Why? There Is No Alternative (TINA): The … Continue reading TINA, ZIRP, The Future & The Retail Investor
Dovish Fed Chair Jerome Powell held day 2 of his semi-annual monetary report to Congress today. To summarize, the Fed's got your back if you are a company of most any size, if you participate in the capital markets, if you are a politician looking for a free lunch, if you desire low interest rates … Continue reading This Dove’s Not Crying
We selected 62 companies from our CEORater database - primarily Technology companies - to understand which companies had the most insider buying and selling activity during Q2. We then sorted those companies such that the top of the list consists of companies with the most Q2 insider sales activity. Click the image below to access … Continue reading Q2’20 Insider Sales Activity
Total non-farm payroll employment increased by +2.5 million in May led by a recovery in Leisure and Hospitality. The biggest driver was bars and restaurants ("Food Services and Drinking Establishments"), which added +1.4 million jobs and accounted for 56% of total non-farm payroll additions. Non-farm employment in May improved sequentially and was 13% below February … Continue reading U.S. Economy Improves from COVID Lows Boosted by Bars & Restaurants
Total non-farm payroll employment fell by 701,000 in March 2020. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics ("BLS"). Access our Excel breakdown HERE. Access the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" HERE. Reach us at info@ceorater.com or jmaietta@tek2day.com with any questions. click table to expand or download https://open.spotify.com/episode/7jfJcHHQGgV7ODBnX1p0pZ https://youtu.be/ARMMrPigbuQ
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