Tag: equities

Sell This Rally

Sell This Rally

Equity indices have rallied today as reported Headline and Core CPI increased by "only" 7.7% and 6.3% Y-O-Y respectively. Many Technology names are up double-digit percentages today on this macro news despite the fact that many companies are cutting heads (it's not just CRM, LYFT, META, MSFT, NFLX, RDFN and SHOP), given the weak economic … Continue reading Sell This Rally

Further Downward Pressure On Equities

Further Downward Pressure On Equities

Given higher interest rates some Private Equity deals have been executed with 100% equity. This means Private Equity firms will become more valuation sensitive in order to generate higher returns. In months and years past PE firms would use minimal equity (subscription loans were popular), when executing transactions. Minimizing the equity component would goose PE … Continue reading Further Downward Pressure On Equities

A Market Bottom Followed By A Sideways Sawtooth Pattern

A Market Bottom Followed By A Sideways Sawtooth Pattern

Once the equity market finds a bottom in the first half of 2023 it is doubtful the market will roar back for a sustained rally. We believe the market will trade sideways for 3-5 years. Our theory is based on three assumptions: First: the Fed maintains its Fed Funds Rate in a range of 3-5%. … Continue reading A Market Bottom Followed By A Sideways Sawtooth Pattern

Yields Will March Higher

Yields Will March Higher

The Fed will continue to hike interest rates for the foreseeable future. Macroeconomic and geopolitical risks are increasing. Therefore, yields can only move in one direction (Up), but this story won't have a happy ending like the Pixar movie of the same name. That is good news for high yield investors, good news for savers … Continue reading Yields Will March Higher

The Return of Active Management

The Return of Active Management

Our view of the Equity market over the next few years calls for a choppy market that will reward Active Managers and penalize the Buy & Hold crowd. This forthcoming "choppy" market will not be a market where most Technology stocks move up or down, or where certain sectors move in unison. Rather, we are … Continue reading The Return of Active Management

The NASDAQ Could Re-Test COVID Lows & The Rise of High Yield

The NASDAQ Could Re-Test COVID Lows & The Rise of High Yield

Could the NASDAQ re-test the COVID lows of March 2020 when it sat around 6,900? Yes. That would require a prolonged recession (which we expect) AND The Fed not restarting its ultra-dovish monetary policy of Quantitative Easing combined with a near zero Fed Funds Rate. Who knows how the Fed will behave in 2H 2023 … Continue reading The NASDAQ Could Re-Test COVID Lows & The Rise of High Yield

The Strong U.S. Dollar. Or Is It?

The Strong U.S. Dollar. Or Is It?

Sure, the U.S. Dollar may be strong as of late versus other currencies, but when measured versus the price of gold, the USD has experienced significant value destruction over the years as a result of the Federal Reserve's persistent money printing. The USD has lost 98% of its value versus gold since August 1971 when … Continue reading The Strong U.S. Dollar. Or Is It?

This Bear Market Rally Is Overdone

This Bear Market Rally Is Overdone

This bear market rally feels more driven by FOMO than the fundamentals. What is there to get so excited about as to justify this rally off of the June lows? Inflation: Is the fact that headline CPI slowed to 8.5% from 9.1% really anything to write home about? Core CPI plus Food was up 1.4% … Continue reading This Bear Market Rally Is Overdone

QT Has Only Just Begun

QT Has Only Just Begun

The Fed's balance sheet declined modestly ending the week at $8.91 trillion, down from $8.93 trillion and up from $8.76 trillion at the beginning of the calendar year and up from $4.17 trillion in January 2020 (just before the unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus programs of 2020 and 2021). As we wrote on Tuesday, the … Continue reading QT Has Only Just Begun